The actions of policymakers can be crucial drivers of financial market movements.
Certain facts influence politicians and monetary policy makers, but their reaction function also matters. Our impartial perspective helps us stay ahead of how policy will actually be set.
Monetary policy surprises can arise from differences in how the fundamental outlook is perceived or a misunderstanding of how policymakers will respond to it. Replicating Bank of England models for the real economy and its reaction function provides a formal framework to process news through.
Heteronomics conducts regular mechanical updates to ascertain how the outlook may be evolving in the eyes of monetary policymakers. This approach helps anticipate policy surprises and the associated financial market movements.
Heteronomics takes a genuinely impartial approach to ensure its guidance steers clear of avoidable bias. Unencumbered analysis of political events seeks to dispassionately understand the motivations of any relevant actors. On Brexit, that goes beyond the UK, to the European Council, Commission, and member states. Optimal forecasts are always informed by the nexus of these political reaction functions and the legal constraints, being sure to avoid the wood being lost for all the trees.
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