Macroeconomic research specialising in inflation, monetary policy, and the UK.
Consistent performance requires a replicable framework, so data is at the core of our research. Our forecasts are continually updating for developments using our advanced data services.
Our coverage:
Full service macroeconomic research for the UK.
Services Smash into Inflationary Despair
Services activity crashed in the UK and US as high inflation destroyed demand. Although the EA move was relatively modest, it suffers the same crisis in consumer confidence.EA vacancies are …
UK: Consumers Drown Their Sorrows
The bleak retail performance of the previous two months reversed to a surprising extent as sales surged by 1.4%. Demand for booze dominated falling non-food store sales.GDP seems only slightly …
EU/UK: Trade War?
Some escalation in trade tensions between the EU and UK cannot be ruled out as the two sides continue wrangling over Northern Ireland. However, contrary to some recent headlines, an …
UK: Inflation Breaks Upside Streak
UK inflation broke its six-month streak of upside surprises by “only” jumping to 9% on the CPI and 11.1% on the RPI. Food prices were surprisingly high for us.Underlying inflation …
UK: Labour Market Cycles Inflation Up
Employment increased ahead of April’s jobs tax hike, and vacancies since then stayed high. Hours have also recovered despite depressed self-employment levels.Firms appear to be focusing on retention, with bonus …
Thematic specialism in inflation and monetary policy
UK: Inflation Breaks Upside Streak
UK inflation broke its six-month streak of upside surprises by “only” jumping to 9% on the CPI and 11.1% on the RPI. Food prices were surprisingly high for us.Underlying inflation …
EA: Less Energy but More Inflation
EA HICP inflation was revised slightly lower again in the final print for Apr-22, so it is flat on the month at 7.44% y-o-y. The ex-tobacco index still rounded to …
Persistent Risk Premium Threat
Economies are increasingly facing stagflationary squeezes. A series of additional cost shocks would extend the pressures even without traditional second-round effects.Adapting to a higher operational risk premium could create additional …
EA: Core Inflation Burns-Off Energy Fall
EA inflation increased again in Apr-22 to 7.5%, extending the trend to a fresh high. Surprisingly intense core pressures offset energy price declines.Upside news was relatively broad-based for our forecast, …
UK: Inflation Springs Surprisingly Far
Inflation broadly exceeded expectations for the sixth consecutive month as it reached 7% on the CPI and 9% on the RPI. The pull up to equilibrium prices continues.Underlying measures are …
We also provide a continuous narrative of economic developments in our Weekly and Monthly
HEW: Brisk Activity Before Slow Spell
Over the past week, the UK labour market and retail data were surprisingly strong, while UK and EA inflation fell slightly short of expectations. As welcome as that is, it …
HEM: Moderating Moves
Inflation near painful peaks pushes policy tighteningReal activity suffering is likely to bound the moveThe BoE seems set to hike again on 5 May, then slowThe ECB can begin on …
