Macroeconomic research specialising in inflation, monetary policy, and the UK.
Consistent performance requires a replicable framework, so data is at the core of our research. Our forecasts are continually updating for developments using our advanced data services.
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Full service macroeconomic research for the UK.
UK: Holidays Reduce Output in Jun-22
UK GDP contracted by 0.6% m-o-m in June after a downwardly revised 0.4% growth in May, which appears to confirm the distortions from the Diamond Jubilee holidays.Some positive payback should …
BoE: Market Tail Wags Policy Dog
The BoE hiked by 50bps to 1.75%, in line with market and consensus expectations, but contrary to our view that a lack of increased second round effects would mean 25bps.A …
UK: Sales Down, Down, Deeper and Down
The British consumer continued suffering from painfully high inflation in June, with no significant real growth since Oct-21 creating an annual decline near 6%.Food sales were relatively high in June …
Surveys Screeching Toward Recession
Global manufacturing is trending towards contractions, with the Euro area now leading the way for the worse. At least price pressures are easing in the process.Services are also being increasingly …
UK: Inflation Focusing on Food Again
UK inflation was a tenth above forecast as it rose to 9.4% and 11.8% on the CPI and RPI, with the news concentrated on food prices such that the “core” …
Thematic specialism in inflation and monetary policy
UK: Inflation Focusing on Food Again
UK inflation was a tenth above forecast as it rose to 9.4% and 11.8% on the CPI and RPI, with the news concentrated on food prices such that the “core” …
EA: Underlying Inflation Falling Past Peak
EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.64% in the final print for Jun-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.8% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.The outlook for the next few …
EA: Inflation Trend Stays for Summer
EA inflation continued its trend with another 0.6pp rise to 8.64% in June-22. The surprise pressures are moving back from the core components to energy and food.Despite the upside headline …
UK: Inflation Loses Some Core Support
UK CPI inflation matched forecasts by rising slightly to 9.1% amid relatively small offsetting surprises, although the RPI was more adversely affected and rose to 11.7%.Strength in food and energy …
EA: Inflation Trend’s Momentum Dips
EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.05% in the final print for May-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.2% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.Unlike the current consensus, we still …
We also provide a continuous narrative of economic developments in our Weekly and Monthly
HEW: Europe’s Inflation in Jul-22
Over the past week, UK GDP confirmed the distorting effect of bank holiday changes as the economy more than unwound May’s rise. Surprisingly low US inflation may have eased some …
HEM: Pains Getting Severe
Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assuredDemand volumes are being crushedA cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UKThe BoE should resist raising its hiking paceThe ECB started …
