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Expert insights
Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
UK: Retreating To Trend Again
Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.The 0.3% m-o-m …
UK: Some Workshy Start Looking
A broadly softer labour market report could easily be used to overstate the fundamental significance. Unemployment’s rise was expected and only 0.2pp on the year.Employment is growing and redundancies are …
Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks
China’s crashing exports to the US partly reflect avoidance measures, including rerouting through other countries and marking down import prices to subsidiaries.Exports to the EU and UK are only trending …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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