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Expert insights
Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
BoE Holds Gaze On November
The BoE matched widespread expectations by holding the Bank rate at 5.00%, albeit with the lone dissent (Swati Dhingra) matching our relatively hawkish forecast.Little news was seen in UK indicators. …
UK Core CPI Strength Narrows
Headline UK inflation was broadly unchanged in August. However, core and services inflation rebounded, shrinking the undershoot relative to the BoE’s last forecast.Airfares spiked, partly offset by ongoing weakness in …
Forecast Stability Doesn’t Ensure Success
Inflation’s relative stability and predictability have reassured policymakers of their dovish forecasts, encouraging rate cuts despite some inconveniently resilient data.Historically, outcomes two years after slight surprises have still skewed higher. …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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