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Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.Repeating 2008’s experience would …
UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.Levels remain healthy and redundancies are …
UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing
Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.Residual seasonality has dominated the …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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