You receive too much noisy information
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- Some analysts make things worse.
- Even high conviction views can fail when the framework is flimsy
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Expert insights
Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
Terminal Rates Are Still Too Low
Excessively dovish expectations have repriced recently, but 2025 rates require almost another 20bps increase in the US and Euro area to reverse August’s dysfunctional drop.Rate alignment across the US, UK, …
HEM: Sugar Rush
Forceful Fed easing was inconsistent with resilient dataUnderlying wage inflation remains excessiveWe see 25bp cuts at the next ECB, BoE and Fed meetsCuts are likely to stop early in 2025 …
Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE
Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.Dubai …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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