October 03, 2022
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UK Politics: Poll Position

  • Last week, the probability of a Labour victory at the next general election rose significantly. However, the Party should beware of complacency and continue to work towards winning on merit rather than taking a chance on simply being the ‘default’ option.

By Alastair Newton

September 30, 2022
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EA: Inflation Burns Up Forecasts Again

  • EA inflation surged beyond forecasts again to rise 82bp to 10.0% in Sep-22. The only consolation is that the upside news was in energy rather than the core.
  • Month-ahead forecasts are consistently exceeded, with the latest 0.36pp miss only about a tenth below the past year's average. Inflationary trends appear unwavering.
  • ECB hawks are likely to seek another 75bps hike in October, despite not being the norm. It is in a rush to get rates back to neutral, if not beyond.

By Philip Rush

September 28, 2022
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Trussonomics (Pt 2): The Trade Mirage

  • For the time being, investors are understandably focusing on the fiscal and monetary implications of Trussonomics. However, it is only a matter of time before her agenda's potential external trade consequences come to the fore and act as a further drag on market sentiment.

By Alastair Newton