October 03, 2022
UK Politics: Poll Position
- Last week, the probability of a Labour victory at the next general election rose significantly. However, the Party should beware of complacency and continue to work towards winning on merit rather than taking a chance on simply being the ‘default’ option.
By Alastair Newton
September 30, 2022
EA: Inflation Burns Up Forecasts Again
- EA inflation surged beyond forecasts again to rise 82bp to 10.0% in Sep-22. The only consolation is that the upside news was in energy rather than the core.
- Month-ahead forecasts are consistently exceeded, with the latest 0.36pp miss only about a tenth below the past year's average. Inflationary trends appear unwavering.
- ECB hawks are likely to seek another 75bps hike in October, despite not being the norm. It is in a rush to get rates back to neutral, if not beyond.
By Philip Rush
September 28, 2022
Trussonomics (Pt 2): The Trade Mirage
- For the time being, investors are understandably focusing on the fiscal and monetary implications of Trussonomics. However, it is only a matter of time before her agenda's potential external trade consequences come to the fore and act as a further drag on market sentiment.
By Alastair Newton
