September 20, 2021
Germany: Traffic signals ahead
- Ahead of elections on 26 September, the SPD has moved ahead in the polls, and a three-party SPD-Green led coalition now looks to be the most likely outcome.
- The SPD and Greens look like natural partners. The major stumbling block to any coalition will be the deal with a third party – i.e. a Traffic Light arrangement with the FDP, or a more controversial tie-up with the ex-communist Linke party.
- A policy programme billed as an investment in decarbonisation and digital infrastructure could be a key source of unity for a Traffic Light government.
September 20, 2021
UK: energy jump into a forward roll down
- Gas and electricity prices have jumped amid a perfect storm of supply pressures, especially in the UK, where the infrastructure has failed in storage and through fire.
- The extreme moves concentrate this winter, causing our typically accurate model to suffer. We now implement the regulator’s full model. The peak RPI y-o-y impact now looks less to us, at 89bps, and a small cut could occur with contract rolls in Oct-22.
September 17, 2021
UK: on holiday from retail
- Retail sales delivered another substantial disappointment by declining for the fourth consecutive month in August. Declines remained broad-based rather than reflecting a normalisation towards services, and restaurant bookings are falling in September.
- Post-holiday quarantine has overtaken the “pingdemic”, with more adults than ever forced into isolation (nearly a million). Further disruption is likely to return with the schools. Consumers remain gloomy about their situation and are not splurging savings.
