September 20, 2021
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Germany: Traffic signals ahead

  • Ahead of elections on 26 September, the SPD has moved ahead in the polls, and a three-party SPD-Green led coalition now looks to be the most likely outcome.
  • The SPD and Greens look like natural partners. The major stumbling block to any coalition will be the deal with a third party – i.e. a Traffic Light arrangement with the FDP, or a more controversial tie-up with the ex-communist Linke party.
  • A policy programme billed as an investment in decarbonisation and digital infrastructure could be a key source of unity for a Traffic Light government.

September 20, 2021
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UK: energy jump into a forward roll down

  • Gas and electricity prices have jumped amid a perfect storm of supply pressures, especially in the UK, where the infrastructure has failed in storage and through fire.
  • The extreme moves concentrate this winter, causing our typically accurate model to suffer. We now implement the regulator’s full model. The peak RPI y-o-y impact now looks less to us, at 89bps, and a small cut could occur with contract rolls in Oct-22.

September 17, 2021
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UK: on holiday from retail

  • Retail sales delivered another substantial disappointment by declining for the fourth consecutive month in August. Declines remained broad-based rather than reflecting a normalisation towards services, and restaurant bookings are falling in September.
  • Post-holiday quarantine has overtaken the “pingdemic”, with more adults than ever forced into isolation (nearly a million). Further disruption is likely to return with the schools. Consumers remain gloomy about their situation and are not splurging savings.