Archive

China CPI 0.1% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in Mar-24

- China's CPI growth in March 2024 was 0.1% y-o-y, significantly below market consensus and marking the lowest growth since January 2024.
- Although the figure is 0.18pp above the one-year average, the slight improvement from falling prices emphasises the problem's persistence.

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

On A Slow Boat To China

• As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton

China CPI -0.8% y-o-y (consensus -0.5%) in Jan-24

- China's CPI declined by 0.8% year-on-year in January 2024, falling short of the consensus forecast by 0.3 percentage points.
- This decline in CPI is much lower than last month and below the one-year average, suggesting a deepening period of unusually weak inflation.