Archive

War In 2024

• Investors have learned to live with the Russia/Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis, and China/Taiwan tensions. However, they still need to beware less high-profile war risks around the world that are consistent with the turbulent times in which we live.

By Alastair Newton

China GDP Growth 5.2% y-o-y in Q4-23

- China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q4-23, marking the highest growth rate since Q2-23 and surpassing the long-run average by 1.09 percentage points.
- The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q4-23 was 1.0%, indicating a positive trend of economic recovery.

China CPI -0.3% y-o-y (consensus -0.4%) in Dec-23

- China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in December 2023, slightly better than expected.
- Although an improvement from the previous month, the CPI remains below both the one-year and long-run averages, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures.

Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #2

• For the past 18 months or so, there has been much talk of ‘peak China’ economically. As we enter the year of the dragon, should we add to this the semi-related question of whether we are also witnessing China’s diplomatic peak?

By Alastair Newton