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Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Apr-24

• The Bank of Thailand's decision to keep the Policy Rate unchanged at 2.5%, despite some members advocating for a reduction, demonstrates a cautious optimism about economic growth and structural impediments, alongside a commitment to macro-financial stability.
• Growth projections for 2024 and 2025 are supported by private consumption, tourism, and public expenditure, albeit tempered by structural challenges in exports and manufacturing, underscoring the need for comprehensive structural reforms.
• The inflation outlook remains subdued, with expectations of a gradual increase towards the target range, necessitating vigilant monitoring of external shocks and the efficacy of monetary policy in fostering an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth amid financial stability concerns.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.77% y-o-y (consensus -0.8%) in Feb-24

- Thailand's CPI inflation in February 2024 declined by 0.77% year-on-year, close to the consensus forecast, but was the least negative outcome since November 2023.
- Core inflation slowed marginally further to 0.43% y-o-y, contrary to expectations, sustaining dovish pressure on monetary policy.

Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Feb-24

• The Bank of Thailand held the Policy Rate at 2.5%, a decision reflecting the Committee's effort to support economic growth and maintain price stability in a context of subdued inflation.
• Structural challenges, including competitiveness issues and the need for reforms, coupled with a slower-than-expected recovery in exports and tourism, underscore the economy's fragility and the nuanced approach needed in monetary policy deliberation.
• The MPC acknowledges the resilience of the financial system and the stability of financial conditions, emphasizing the role of sustained domestic demand in counteracting external pressures, with a commitment to adjusting policy in response to evolving growth and inflation outlooks.

Thailand CPI Inflation -1.11% y-o-y (consensus -0.8%) in Jan-24

- Thailand's CPI inflation for January 2024 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%, falling below the market consensus of -0.8%.
- The core CPI inflation, excluding volatile items, rose by only 0.52% year-on-year in January 2024, albeit closer to expectations of 0.57%.