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Thailand CPI Inflation -0.83% y-o-y (consensus -0.3%) in Dec-23

- Thailand's CPI inflation rate in December 2023 was -0.83% on a year-on-year basis, much lower than the consensus forecast of -0.3%, reflecting a deflationary trend.
- The core CPI inflation rate for the same period was unsurprising at 0.58%, so the downside news was driven by declines in volatile food and energy prices.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.44% y-o-y (consensus -0.3%) in Nov-23

- Thailand's CPI inflation rate for November 2023 declined by 0.44% year-on-year, falling further than market expectations of a 0.3% decrease.
- This marks the lowest growth since February 2021 and is significantly below both the one-year average (2.25pp below) and the long-run average (3.40pp below).

Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.2) in Nov-23

• The Bank of Thailand's unanimous decision to maintain the Policy Rate at 2.5%, in line with economic consensus, indicates a cautious approach to balancing economic recovery with inflation control, considering the mixed signals from domestic and global economic factors.
• Future interest rate decisions will be influenced by evolving economic growth prospects, particularly in domestic demand, tourism, and merchandise exports, alongside potential structural impediments and external economic conditions.
• The inflation outlook, incorporating risks from global energy prices and El Niño-related food price increases, and the ongoing resilience of the financial system, will be key considerations in future monetary policy deliberations, aiming to sustain long-term growth and financial stability.

Thailand GDP Growth 1.5% y-o-y (consensus 2.4%) in Q3-23

- Thailand's GDP growth in Q3-23 recorded a 1.5% y-o-y increase, the lowest since Q4-22, and below market expectations.
- The quarterly growth rate for Q3-23 was 0.8% q-o-q, indicating a potential acceleration in economic activity.