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Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.2) in Nov-23

• The Bank of Thailand's unanimous decision to maintain the Policy Rate at 2.5%, in line with economic consensus, indicates a cautious approach to balancing economic recovery with inflation control, considering the mixed signals from domestic and global economic factors.
• Future interest rate decisions will be influenced by evolving economic growth prospects, particularly in domestic demand, tourism, and merchandise exports, alongside potential structural impediments and external economic conditions.
• The inflation outlook, incorporating risks from global energy prices and El Niño-related food price increases, and the ongoing resilience of the financial system, will be key considerations in future monetary policy deliberations, aiming to sustain long-term growth and financial stability.

Thailand GDP Growth 1.5% y-o-y (consensus 2.4%) in Q3-23

- Thailand's GDP growth in Q3-23 recorded a 1.5% y-o-y increase, the lowest since Q4-22, and below market expectations.
- The quarterly growth rate for Q3-23 was 0.8% q-o-q, indicating a potential acceleration in economic activity.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.31% y-o-y (consensus 0.0%) in Oct-23

- Thailand's CPI inflation in October 2023 registered a decline of 0.31% year-on-year, indicating a surprise decrease in the overall price level relative to expectations for zero growth.
- This negative inflation rate is the lowest since February 2021 and falls 2.62 percentage points below the one-year average, raising concerns about the economic implications of prolonged low inflation.

Thailand Manufacturing Growth -6.06% y-o-y (consensus -5%) in Sep-23

- Thailand's manufacturing sector experienced a decline in growth of 6.06% YoY in September 2023, disappointing expectations for -5% YoY.
- Compared to the one-year average, manufacturing growth was 0.70 percentage points below, and it significantly lagged behind the long-run average by 7.23 percentage points.