Archive

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Apr-24

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain the OCR at 5.50% reflects a strategic intent to manage inflationary pressures influenced by domestic and global economic conditions.
• Persistent inflationary pressures, amid weak economic growth and the nuanced impact of net migration on the labour market and consumer spending, underscore the complexities of returning consumer price inflation to the target range.
• Future policy decisions will hinge on the balance between restrictive monetary policy measures and their impact on economic stability, with a keen eye on global economic trends, labour market dynamics, and inflationary trends.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Feb-24

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain the OCR at 5.50% is predicated on a strategic imperative to curb inflationary pressures amid a complex interplay of domestic capacity easing and sustained global economic challenges.
• Global economic uncertainties, coupled with geopolitical and environmental risks, notably in shipping costs, present nuanced inflationary pressures that the MPC is poised to address through sustained restrictive monetary policy.
• The ongoing assessment of fiscal policy impacts, alongside the vigilance towards domestic and global economic developments, will critically inform the MPC's future policy decisions, underscoring a commitment to steering inflation towards the target range while fostering economic stability.

New Zealand CPI Inflation 4.7% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Q4-23

- New Zealand's CPI inflation rate was 4.7% year-on-year in Q4-23, slowing as expected from the previous quarter's rate of 5.6%.
- The Q4-23 inflation rate is 1.05 percentage points below the one-year average, but the 0.5% q-o-q rate annualises even lower and is close to the target.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5) in Nov-23

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to keep the Official Cash Rate at 5.50% aligns with economic consensus, driven by a mix of domestic economic resilience, global economic slowdown, and persistent inflationary pressures.
• Key future policy influences include domestic demand and housing market dynamics, global economic trends and their impact on exports and inflation, and labour market adjustments.
• The MPC is balancing risks between potential domestic demand strength leading to greater inflationary pressure and a global economic slowdown that could ease these pressures, necessitating a continued restrictive monetary policy stance.