Archive

September 09, 2025
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Fed: Politics Vs Fundamentals

  • President Trump’s current preference for rate cuts is not unconditional. Higher-order logic suggests this would not override fundamental resilience or fairly prove “TACO”.
  • Political pressure is state-dependent, with the messenger mattering more than the objective truth beneath any message. Trump’s Chair will have a stronger hand.
  • Brazil suffered President Lula’s pressure, but he still supported his “Golden Boy’s” turn from dovish dissent to forceful rate hikes. Fed pricing ignores the potential for change.

By Philip Rush

September 08, 2025
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France: Déjà Vu?

  • Despite the near certainty that the Bayrou government will fall on 8 September, investors are wary, rather than spooked, reckoning that they have seen all this before.
  • They are likely correct to judge that compromises will then be found, allowing the 2026 budget to be passed by a new centrist government.
  • However, this would again only be putting off the day when a real crisis point is reached.

By Alastair Newton

August 26, 2025
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Russia/Ukraine: What Now?

  • A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
  • Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
  • Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

By Alastair Newton

August 11, 2025
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US/Taiwan: Xi Calls The Shots

  • In stark contrast to its dealings with other trade partners, Washington is firmly in the position of supplicant in its dealings with Beijing.
  • This reflects not only Xi Jinping’s carefully prepared and strong hand but also Donald Trump’s seeming determination to strike a deal with China at more or less any cost.
  • Increasingly, therefore, Taiwan stands to be “a pawn in a bigger game”.

By Alastair Newton

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