Archive

April 15, 2024
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Europe, The Elections And The Economy

  • Although the centre seems set to hold in the upcoming European Parliament elections, a strong performance by nationalist parties, especially in France and Germany, could hinder Europe’s ability to revive its stagnant economy, especially in the face of new external threats.

By Alastair Newton

April 09, 2024
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UK Politics: Plague On Both Your Houses

  • If, as recent opinion polling suggests, the Conservative Party suffers a record defeat in the forthcoming general election, there is a risk that Labour and especially the Conservatives seize the wrong lessons from the outcome.

By Alastair Newton

April 04, 2024
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US Politics: Sticking With Joe (For Now?)

  • The shape of the US presidential election has become much more apparent in the past three months. However, the commentariat’s recent tilt towards a Trump victory seems premature and unsupported by the facts. I am, therefore, ‘sticking with Joe’ for now, at least.

By Alastair Newton

March 25, 2024
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Oil: A Fine Line

  • The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

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