Archive

April 28, 2025
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UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day

  • With the balance of how many seats Labour loses to Reform UK relative to the LibDems and Greens being potentially decisive in internal party wrangling, the outcomes of the 1 May local elections and a concurrent by-election stand to have a significant impact on government policy.

By Alastair Newton

April 22, 2025
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Prisoner's Dilemma For Ukraine

  • Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
  • Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
  • Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.

By Philip Rush

April 14, 2025
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US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

  • Although Donald Trump’s U-turn may allow time for the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations with some US partners, neither China nor the EU is likely to strike an agreement imminently, especially now that America’s vulnerability to the bond market has become all too clear.

By Alastair Newton

April 08, 2025
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UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

  • The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
  • Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
  • An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

By Philip Rush

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