Archive

April 04, 2024
2024-04-04 AN_head.png

US Politics: Sticking With Joe (For Now?)

  • The shape of the US presidential election has become much more apparent in the past three months. However, the commentariat’s recent tilt towards a Trump victory seems premature and unsupported by the facts. I am, therefore, ‘sticking with Joe’ for now, at least.

By Alastair Newton

March 25, 2024
2024-03-25 AN_head.png

Oil: A Fine Line

  • The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

March 19, 2024
2024-03-19 AN_head.png

Russia: Putin 5.0

  • Vladimir Putin’s election victory reflects not only rigging but also the reality that many Russians see no alternative. Neither the Ukraine war per se nor a deteriorating non-war economy is likely significantly to change this as the President sets his sights on another election victory in 2030.

By Alastair Newton

March 14, 2024
2024-03-14 AN_head.png

On A Slow Boat To China

  • As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton

By country