Archive

February 12, 2024
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UK Politics: Bye-bye Elections

  • The Conservative right-wing’s determination to continue pressing the self-destruct button is only likely to be deepened by two more by-election defeats on 15 February, ensuring that the UK waves ‘bye-bye’ to Tory government after the upcoming general election for at least five years.

By Alastair Newton

February 06, 2024
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Four Important EM Elections in 2024

  • Elections in Indonesia and India should both result in policy continuity as far as the economy is concerned. In South Africa, the election outcome will likely lead to a further deterioration in governance. As for Mexico, MORENA will probably retain the presidency but fall short of its target two-thirds majority in the legislature.

By Alastair Newton

January 29, 2024
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War In 2024

  • Investors have learned to live with the Russia/Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis, and China/Taiwan tensions. However, they still need to beware less high-profile war risks around the world that are consistent with the turbulent times in which we live.

By Alastair Newton

January 23, 2024
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Outlook 2024: Europe At A Crossroads

  • Suggestions that June’s European Parliament elections are ‘make or break’ for the EU are probably overstated. But the outcome of what is arguably the second most consequential election of 2024 is still potentially pivotal for EU reform and enlargement prospects.

By Alastair Newton

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