Archive

March 06, 2024
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UK Flogging A Dead Horse

  • The UK Budget should be the last fiscal statement before the general election. It merely sold more of the same fiscal approach, measures, and political focus to weary voters.
  • A fiscal windfall was spent on a national insurance tax cut in an ongoing effective reconfiguration from income tax. Non-dom reform steals a bad Labour policy.
  • Challenges for the next Labour government are increasingly severe but not scaring markets. Loose fiscal policy is sustaining the need for relatively high interest rates.

By Philip Rush

March 05, 2024
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UK Politics: Betting On Red

  • The 6 March budget will be highly political but looking to shore up Conservative ‘core’ support and fend off the Reform UK threat rather than appealing to the broader electorate. The embedded ‘bet’ is that an incoming Labour government will inherit the fiscal consequences.

By Alastair Newton

February 26, 2024
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Russia/Ukraine

  • As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, investors should continue to essentially sideline scenarios for the conflict per se and concentrate instead on the implications of increased defence spending in the West in general and Europe in particular.

By Alastair Newton

February 19, 2024
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UK Politics: The Right Bites

  • Following Reform UK’s strong performance in last week’s by-elections, the 29 February Rochdale by-election will create pressure for Rishi Sunak from within his party to shift rightwards or step down.

By Alastair Newton

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