Archive

January 22, 2024
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Outlook 2024: The Big Issue, Part 3

  • Forecasters are shying away from predicting the outcome of the US election. However, it may not be that complicated, the key determinant being the economy. Joe Biden should win a second term if the Fed cuts rates early in 2024 and the Administration sharpens its messaging. If not…

By Alastair Newton

January 15, 2024
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Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

  • With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

January 11, 2024
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Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #2

  • For the past 18 months or so, there has been much talk of ‘peak China’ economically. As we enter the year of the dragon, should we add to this the semi-related question of whether we are also witnessing China’s diplomatic peak?

By Alastair Newton

January 09, 2024
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Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #1

  • In the Year of the Dragon, China faces a challenging time economically as, in a “complex” domestic and international environment, the CCP is focused increasingly on security and related self-reliance even at the expense of economic growth.

By Alastair Newton

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