Archive

April 25, 2025
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HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

  • US policy kept driving volatility over Easter. Sensible responses to market weakness may be matched on the upside with MAGA shocks, creating a Trump Collar to pricing. Yet the global economy is unfazed by the attacks and uncertainty, contrary to the consensus.
  • Next week’s release calendar is heavier with data, including some that provide needed colour on current conditions. US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April are highlights, with Q1 EA and US GDP probably discounted by the market as old news.

By Philip Rush

April 11, 2025
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HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

  • Volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs disrupted markets again over the past week. Waiting to see the impact in data dampens the relevance of releases, including low US inflation (depressed by a late Easter), and surging UK GDP (residual seasonality).
  • UK unemployment and inflation data risks skew hawkishly next week amid resilient underlying trends and the belated impact of Spring stock landing in clothing store price samples. Market moves also push the ECB towards cutting again on Thursday.

By Philip Rush

April 04, 2025
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HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

  • Surprisingly severe global tariff hikes smashed market sentiment, dovishly depressing equity prices and rate expectations. Lower EA inflation also leans toward looser policy. Market eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience seems excessive.
  • Those new tariff rates are scheduled to take effect over the week ahead, with any more trading of blows potentially the main macro news. US inflation, UK GDP and the RBNZ are the more conventional highlights, but the data may be discounted as old news.

By Philip Rush

March 28, 2025
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HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

  • Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
  • Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

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