Archive

August 01, 2025
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HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide

  • Depressing revisions to US payroll data clash with the resilience seen in other data, and compare poorly with the bullish revisions to the Euro area’s labour market.
  • Jobs data challenge the Fed’s patient posture, while the Euro area’s sticky inflation and tighter labour markets should encourage it to keep rolling rate cuts later.
  • Thursday’s BoE decision sets unemployment’s rise against inflation persistence, leaving the outcome uncertain, yet it is likely to yield another split vote for a rate cut.

By Philip Rush

July 25, 2025
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HEW: Trade Deals & Fiscal Slippage

  • Market narratives were driven by US trade pacts, critically with Japan, the ECB watching data from a good place, and further evidence of UK fiscal problems.
  • Tariff uncertainty eased slightly, but it is still fierce ahead of the 1 August deadline. PMIs remained resilient, and UK retail sales rebounded into growth again for Q2.
  • Next week brings Fed, BoC and BoJ meetings (broadly on hold), US and euro-area GDP growth for Q2, US payrolls, euro-area unemployment and slower flash HICP data.

By Philip Rush

July 18, 2025
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HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom

  • Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
  • UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
  • Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

By Philip Rush

July 11, 2025
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HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

  • Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
  • We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
  • Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

By Philip Rush

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