Archive

December 12, 2025
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HEW: Packing Festive Presents

  • Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort beyond current voters.
  • Trade with China is still avoiding the trade war well enough to prevent a massive shock, and UK GDP data kept following its residual seasonality rather than fundamental stories.
  • It’s all happening next week as central banks and statistical authorities ram releases in before Christmas. Bailey’s bias to pivot should deliver a BoE cut while the ECB holds.

By Philip Rush

December 05, 2025
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HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

  • The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.
  • UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.
  • Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

By Philip Rush

November 28, 2025
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HEW: Slow Shovels

  • UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
  • European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
  • Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

By Philip Rush

November 21, 2025
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HEW: Micro Risk Off

  • Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
  • US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
  • Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

By Philip Rush

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