Archive

January 30, 2026
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HEW: Markets Making Opinions

  • The falling USD and surging precious metals prices don’t fit the fundamental narratives of lazy strategists seeking to extrapolate moves into spurious trends.
  • Macro developments have been relatively benign, with resilient real activity shown in euro area GDP and surveys. Looser conditions pose upside risks to UK shelter prices.
  • Next week’s ECB and BoE decisions are set for no change rate outcomes, and we expect that will also broadly apply to guidance. We still expect no more cuts from either bank.

By Philip Rush

January 23, 2026
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HEW: Recovering UK Data

  • UK macro data filled a release calendar with positive news on activity from retail sales, the PMIs, public finances, and even unemployment through its first stability since July.
  • Inflation data didn’t offset this hawkish pressure. It increased despite the early sample and the EA rate getting revised even softer. Greenland’s travails distracted markets.
  • Next week’s calendar is dominated by the Fed’s guidance around its likely unchanged policy decision. We don’t see the Fed in any rush to cut again, nor the BoE or ECB.

By Philip Rush

January 16, 2026
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HEW: Steady Start To 2026

  • UK GDP data set Q4 up to match Q3, while monthly US inflation held in December precisely where it was before the shutdown noisily disrupted the dataflow.
  • The case for easing remains thin, and there isn’t much scope to change that before the next decisions. The BOK delivered the year’s first policy news by cutting its easing bias.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be dampened by prices being sampled too early for Christmas surge pricing. It's broadly a busy week for UK and Euro area data.

By Philip Rush

January 09, 2026
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HEW: Turning 2026 Resiliently

  • A festive feast in resilient GDP data has extended into tracking estimates for Q4 in the US and UK, while the US unemployment rate has fallen from revision-tempered highs.
  • Falling PMIs were less encouraging, but don’t break resilient signals nor persistently excessive inflation signals. Plans to recover profit margins add to the BoE’s challenge.
  • Next week’s US inflation data provides the first clean monthly rate after November’s nonsensical gap-filling. UK GDP data for November is the other highlight for us.

By Philip Rush

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