Archive

June 02, 2025
2025-06-02 HEM_head.png

HEM: Better Never Than Late

  • Companies are smoothing out volatile trade policies
  • Activity remains strong and labour markets are tight
  • Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
  • Markets expect cuts to resume later, contrary to history
  • The risk of rate hikes in 2026 is widely underappreciated
May 06, 2025
2025-05-06 HEM_head.png

HEM: Dovish Prices Deranged

  • Activity remains surprisingly strong, defying dovish fears
  • Labour markets are tight, and manufacturing is stable
  • Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
  • Rates underrepresent the rebounding risk sentiment
  • BoE cut pricing ahead of the Fed looks the most deranged
March 31, 2025
2025-03-31 HEM_head.png

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

  • Fear of tariffs and DOGE is depressing vibes in US surveys
  • Resilient labour markets suggest dovish fear is overblown
  • Underlying price and wage inflation remains too high
  • Paused easing cycles do not resume without recessions
  • Reversing unnecessary easing remains more likely in 2026
March 04, 2025
2025-03-04 HEM_head.png

HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

  • Central banks should slow, pause, or stop cutting rates
  • Inflation revisions are drifting up and surprising higher
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • Rate hikes in 2026 could reverse unnecessary easing

By country