May 01, 2024
HEM: Molting Hawk Feathers
- Rolling rate cuts have flattened the front end enough
- Hikes are unlikely despite limited cuts coming later
- Market pricing may overshoot before we become dovish
- Our Nov-24 BoE call is still slightly later than priced
- A Fed delay beyond Sep would slow ECB cuts after June
April 08, 2024
HEM: Rolling Precariously
- Data are resilient, but markets doubt the policy effect
- Rising unemployment would signal a need for rate cuts
- UK wage settlements support a high floor in inflation
- Excess demand and inflation delay BoE cuts to Feb-25
- The Fed and ECB may only delay to Sep-24
March 04, 2024
HEM: Reality Rolling Doves
- Resilient data keeps rolling back dovish pricing
- Rates do not seem tight enough to require deep cuts
- UK wage growth is too high for import prices to offset
- Excess demand and inflation delay BoE cuts to Feb-25
- The ECB may only delay to Sep-24, closer to the Fed
February 05, 2024
HEM: Dovish Dreams Decaying
- Cut pricing should keep rolling later without weak data
- Resilient activity suggests rates are not that tight
- Wage growth is too high for import prices to offset
- The Fed can cut in June ahead of the ECB in September
- Structural issues still delay our BoE call until Feb-25
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