Archive

January 05, 2023
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HEM: The Long Road Down

  • UK and EA output are falling into recession
  • The return from inflation’s peak has been energised
  • Another 50bp BoE hike in Feb-23 is underpriced
  • ECB cuts are overpriced in H2 2023
  • 2024 should enjoy growth, less inflation and rate cuts
December 01, 2022
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HEM: A Reassuring Recession

  • Forecast uncertainty is narrowing around recession
  • Confidence is rising about inflation having peaked
  • Rate hikes can revert to smaller increments in Dec-22
  • Cuts back to neutral will probably begin in 2024
November 01, 2022
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HEM: Scorched Earth Paths

  • Inflation forecast drift is pushing more rate hikes
  • Recessions are accepted collateral damage
  • The BoE need not hike beyond the Fed in 2023
  • The ECB path should be more curvaceous than priced
October 05, 2022
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HEM: Settling into Recession

  • Aggressive rate hikes are pushing for recessions
  • Inflationary trends have support from a sticky core
  • The BoE should resist beating the Fed’s hikes
  • The ECB risks breaking the EA before hitting neutral

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