Archive

September 05, 2022
hem_head2.png

HEM: Summertime Sadness

  • High inflation has infected the EA’s core again
  • Rising prices and rates push activity near contraction
  • The UK cycle is moving closer to a burn out phase
  • BoE rate hikes need not overshoot the Fed
  • Aggressive ECB hikes may break things early again
August 01, 2022
hem_head2.png

HEM: Pains Getting Severe

  • Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
  • Demand volumes are being crushed
  • A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
  • The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
  • The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps
July 05, 2022
hem_head2.png

HEM: Pain Stunts Growth

  • Demand is struggling with painfully high inflation
  • Core inflation pressures appear to be turning down
  • The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
  • The ECB has pre-committed to hikes in Jul and Sep
June 06, 2022
hem_head2.png

HEM: Inflation Pain Bites

  • Upside inflation surprises have eased as peaks near
  • Demand destruction is becoming apparent
  • The BoE seems set to hike in Jun and Aug then slow
  • The ECB has similarly positioned hikes in Jul and Sep

By country