Archive

May 03, 2022
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HEM: Moderating Moves

  • Inflation near painful peaks pushes policy tightening
  • Real activity suffering is likely to bound the move
  • The BoE seems set to hike again on 5 May, then slow
  • The ECB can begin on 8 Sep at a more gradual pace
April 04, 2022
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HEM: Up, Up, and Away

  • Trending inflation increases are pushing policy rates
  • Tight labour markets only reinforce the hawkish case
  • The BoE is likely to hike again in May, then slow
  • We expect the ECB to join it in Sep-22 after tapering
March 07, 2022
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HEM: pressures exploding

  • Energy compounds excessive core inflation pressures
  • Tight labour markets reinforce the hawkish case
  • The BoE is front-loading rate hikes in 2022
  • We expect the ECB to join it in Dec-22 belatedly
January 31, 2022
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HEM: inflation eating 2022

  • Underlying inflation has risen to worrying highs
  • Real growth is eroded with incomes and capacity
  • The BoE can slow hikes if prices don’t pass to wages
  • The ECB now looks likely to hike early in 2023

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