Archive

US Tariff Impact Estimates

• New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
• Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
• Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

By Philip Rush

Trump-ism And East Asia

• Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for East Asian economies that may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

By Alastair Newton

Vietnam CPI Inflation 4.34% y-o-y in Jun-24

- Vietnam's headline CPI inflation decelerated slightly to 4.34% in June 2024, the lowest rate since March 2024, but remained above the one-year average.
- Core CPI inflation stood at 2.61% year-over-year, indicating that non-core components like food and energy prices drive the excess headline inflation, leaving persistent but moderating inflationary pressures.

Vietnam CPI Inflation 4.44% y-o-y in May-24

- Vietnam's headline CPI inflation rose to 4.44% y-o-y in May 2024, the highest since January 2023, and significantly above the average, indicating robust inflationary pressures.
- Core CPI inflation remained relatively lower at 2.68% y-o-y, highlighting that the primary drivers of overall inflation are concentrated in more volatile sectors, meriting less attention for policy adjustments.