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China GDP Growth 4.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.4%) in Q3-23

- China's GDP growth rate in Q3-23 was 4.9% y-o-y, the lowest since Q1-23, indicating a slowdown, but not as severe as the 4.4% consensus expectation.
- The 4.9% growth rate is 0.25pp above the one-year average but 0.94pp below the long-run average, suggesting a deviation from historical trends.

China CPI 0.0% y-o-y (consensus 0.2%) in Sep-23

- China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged, with 0.0% year-on-year growth in September 2023, with this flatness disappointing expectations for a rise to 0.2% y-o-y.
- This pace only represents the lowest CPI growth since July 2023, but its unusually subdued level suggests excessively weak inflationary pressures in the Chinese economy.

China M2 Money Supply 10.3% y-o-y (consensus 10.7%) in Sep-23

- China's M2 Money Supply grew by 10.3% year-on-year in September 2023, marking a slight decrease from the previous growth rate of 10.6% and the lowest since March 2022, contrary to expectations of 10.7%.
- The current growth rate of the M2 Money Supply is 1.46 percentage points below the one-year average and 0.12 percentage points below the long-run average, indicating a slowdown and deviation from the typical level of growth.

Reflections From Alastair’s European Trip

• My recent visit to Europe confirmed that China is at the top of investors’ concerns, both Sino-Western tensions and the direction in which domestic policy is heading. There was a degree of cautious optimism about the EU’s medium-term prospects despite the populist threat and a firm belief that something close to the status quo would persist in Ukraine for some time.

By Alastair Newton