Archive

Taiwan Elections: Plus ça change…

• History, popular sentiment, and opinion polls suggest that the outcome of Taiwan’s 13 January 2024 elections is not as consequential to cross-strait relations as some believe. For a real game-changer, look instead to the possible outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

By Alastair Newton

China NBS PMI Manufacturing 49.5 (consensus 50.2) in Oct-23

- China's PMI Manufacturing index disappointingly declined to 49.5 in October 2023, reaching its lowest level since July 2023 and falling below the one-year average.
- The non-manufacturing sector, as measured by the PMI, showed a modest expansion with a reading of 50.6, indicating subdued growth compared to the previous month.

China/Taiwan/US: Deeds vs Words

• Intensifying dialogue between Beijing and Washington is not likely to be derailed by a further escalation in US tech-related sanctions and Chinese retaliation. However, international and especially domestic politics remain the biggest threat to China’s economy.

By Alastair Newton

China GDP Growth 4.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.4%) in Q3-23

- China's GDP growth rate in Q3-23 was 4.9% y-o-y, the lowest since Q1-23, indicating a slowdown, but not as severe as the 4.4% consensus expectation.
- The 4.9% growth rate is 0.25pp above the one-year average but 0.94pp below the long-run average, suggesting a deviation from historical trends.