Archive

April 09, 2024
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UK Politics: Plague On Both Your Houses

  • If, as recent opinion polling suggests, the Conservative Party suffers a record defeat in the forthcoming general election, there is a risk that Labour and especially the Conservatives seize the wrong lessons from the outcome.

By Alastair Newton

April 04, 2024
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US Politics: Sticking With Joe (For Now?)

  • The shape of the US presidential election has become much more apparent in the past three months. However, the commentariat’s recent tilt towards a Trump victory seems premature and unsupported by the facts. I am, therefore, ‘sticking with Joe’ for now, at least.

By Alastair Newton

April 03, 2024
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EA Services Don’t Dis-inflate for Doves

  • EA inflation reversed its previous upside surprise to print down at 2.44% in March. Core inflation was 2bps softer at 2.946% amid non-energy industrial goods price weakness.
  • Services inflation once again surprised on the upside by refusing to budge from 4% for the fifth consecutive month despite potential Olympic-related weakness in France.
  • The ECB can welcome headline disinflation, but without seeing a slowing in services inflation, we still believe it will not be convinced to start cutting interest rates.

By Philip Rush

March 28, 2024
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UK Wage Wealth is an Inflationary Illusion

  • Nominal disposable income continues to surge amid widespread enormous pay rises. Unmatched by productivity, the nominal boost is eroded by inflation to real stagnation.
  • The regime of high nominal increases nonetheless inflates away the debt stock, helping sustain affordability despite forceful interest rate increases.
  • An inflationary reduction in debt burdens is not real wealth. The UK’s net worth is crashing to record negatives as corporates and households suffer post-pandemic.

By Philip Rush

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