Archive

September 23, 2025
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Broadly Slower Services PMIs

  • PMIs broadly disappointed and declined relative to August, but absolute levels mostly remain robust or at least expansionary. We are not concerned by these noisy moves.
  • Such broad slowing seems shocking relative to the past few months, but it is historically a regular occurrence. Five of the previous twelve were at least as broadly bad.
  • The labour market remains tight in the euro area, softened in the UK, and steady in the US. Slower activity does not mean disinflationary slack. We stay relatively hawkish.

By Philip Rush

September 18, 2025
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BoE Trims QT To Hold Policy Steady

  • The MPC unsurprisingly held rates while seeking an answer to its key question around inflation risks amid elevated expectations and a possible structural shift.
  • It also trimmed QT by £30bn to £70bn, keeping active sales of long gilts steady in the next three quarterly auctions while skewing QT towards short and medium gilts.
  • We still expect the MPC’s presumption of rate cuts resuming to fade out in early 2026 as hawkish pressures persist. Some offsetting fiscal space arises from QT being trimmed.

By Philip Rush

September 17, 2025
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UK CPI Stickier For Longer

  • UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August.
  • The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.
  • Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.

By Philip Rush

September 16, 2025
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UK Jobs Find Their Floor

  • Stability in unemployment at 4.66%, while payrolls only marginally decline, suggests the labour market has found its floor before disinflationary pressures accumulate.
  • A narrative-breaking improvement could occur next month. Tax rises structurally explain the scale of the previous shock, with weakness seemingly not going beyond that.
  • Excess supply is needed to break wage growth to a target-consistent trend. Without that, the MPC should hold rates before potentially reversing by raising them in 2026.

By Philip Rush

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