Archive

July 22, 2025
2025-07-22 UK_head.png

UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

  • The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
  • Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
  • Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

By Philip Rush

July 21, 2025
2025-07-21 AN_head.png

US Politics: ‘As Ye Sow…’

  • The Epstein files row has intensified deep splits in the MAGA movement and triggered persistent demands for accountability.
  • Trump’s recent pivot towards supporting Ukraine and critical foreign policy shifts have fuelled further rifts among his traditional base.
  • Despite controversies, the key midterm factor remains Trump’s economic agenda, as tariffs and fiscal changes may hit his core supporters hardest.

By Alastair Newton

By country