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May 08, 2025
2025-05-08 BOE_head.png

BoE Closer To Slowing Cuts

  • The shockingly divided MPC’s offsetting votes weren’t the most hawkish signal alongside its 25bp rate cut. Most of the five backing it were only recently convinced.
  • Maintained guidance for a gradual and careful approach not only disappoints dovish hopes, but signals a 5:2:2 bias between a slower, constant and faster pace of cuts.
  • We still expect this gradualism to help the BoE resist cutting in August (and June) while waiting for dovish evidence that never emerges, making this the last cut.

By Philip Rush

May 07, 2025
2025-05-07 Market_head.png

Trading Inside Trump’s Collar

  • Market volatility is closely tied to US politics, where unfriendly measures can cap equity prices, while reversals limit potential falls, creating a political floor and ceiling.
  • Attempts to avoid all losses lose relevance if they can reverse swiftly. Hedging against falls in the SP500 beyond recent lows better matches the risk of a recessionary crash.
  • Selling year-end upside above 5750 covers the insurance cost and nets a 3.8% return, with price losses and gains capped at 7% and 6.4% by this “Trump Collar” strategy.

By Philip Rush

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