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May 13, 2025
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US Inflation Trends Stick Against Tariffs

  • A marginal downside surprise in headline US inflation measures preserves uncomfortably excessive trends, even without a significant tariff shock and with ongoing airfare falls.
  • Companies may have helpfully smoothed out the tariff shock such that volatile policy never hits consumers. Services (ex-shelter) continued to grow too rapidly for rate cuts.
  • Being in the right ballpark of the target isn’t good enough when the labour market remains tight. At least core price and wage inflation in the US isn’t as bad as in the UK.

By Philip Rush

May 12, 2025
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Oil: How Low Will It Go?

  • Riyadh’s acceleration in unwinding cuts to oil output is now widely seen as a drive to squeeze out high-cost producers, especially US shale. However, no matter how low the price of crude oil goes, tariff-related economic uncertainties make success no more certain than it was in 2014-16.

By Alastair Newton

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