Archive

March 12, 2025
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US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25

  • The upwards trend in monthly US inflation of the past several months broke in February with a surprisingly steep slowing to 0.2% m-o-m, although airfares drove the downside.
  • Drift in consensus expectations is not yet obviously broken, with this outcome 0.2pp above forecasts from a month ago. A rebound after Easter remains likely.
  • Disinflation is unlikely to dissuade the Fed from holding rates in March. We doubt soft surveys will translate to recessionary conditions, so we still see no more Fed cuts.

By Philip Rush

March 11, 2025
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Trump-ism And East Asia

  • Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for East Asian economies that may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

By Alastair Newton

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