Archive

December 08, 2025
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2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty

  • In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
  • Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
  • However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

By Alastair Newton

December 04, 2025
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BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives

  • CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.
  • Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.
  • Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.

By Philip Rush

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