Archive

July 28, 2025
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Opec: Twist Or Stick?

  • The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
  • The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
  • Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.

By Alastair Newton

July 24, 2025
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ECB: Watching the Good Place

  • The ECB kept its description of the policy setting as in a good place, and wants to watch the news in the next few months. Lagarde refused to emphasise September’s meeting.
  • Euro strength is depressing inflation below target in the near-term forecasts, but the ECB remains relaxed about this. It sees the outlook as broadly unchanged since June.
  • We still see rolling resilience in the economy and doubt US trade policy will break it. More rate cuts are inappropriate without demand destruction, so we don’t expect any.

By Philip Rush

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