Archive

October 22, 2025
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UK CPI Trips Into The Fall

  • UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
  • Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
  • Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.

By Philip Rush

October 20, 2025
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Credit Cockroaches Incubating

  • Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
  • Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
  • It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.

By Philip Rush

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