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November 20, 2025
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US: Resilient Into Shutdown

  • US payroll data revealed resilience going into the US government shutdown, with jobs growth the strongest since April and annualising to a pace capable of plateauing growth.
  • Surging labour force participation drove unemployment up in the least disappointing way, with the employment to population ratio making a contradictory improvement.
  • Jobless claims suggest stability into the shutdown’s end, besides noisy federal claims. The FOMC may not get the evidence it needs to cut again in December. It may not exist.

By Philip Rush

November 19, 2025
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UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid

  • UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
  • A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
  • The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.

By Philip Rush

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