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November 11, 2025
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UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut

  • Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
  • Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
  • Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

By Philip Rush

November 06, 2025
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BoE: Bailey Leans Over December Fence

  • Another 5:4 vote split broke the BoE’s run of quarterly rate cuts. Governor Bailey is revealed to be the pivotal member, with the others worried about inflation persistence.
  • Bailey endorsed market pricing and a forward-looking Taylor Rule path that includes a cut this quarter. His verbal comments imply a presumption in favour of cutting then.
  • Upside news over the next two monthly release cycles would be needed to block that December cut. Resistance to cutting should only grow stronger as time passes.

By Philip Rush

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