Archive

December 09, 2025
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China Re-rooting Rather Than Dumping

  • China’s rising export growth to Europe in November demonstrates base effects around a steady trend that predates US tariff increases. It isn’t about dumping.
  • Avoidance measures remain rife, with transhipping through Vietnam not dented by the provisions in their US trade deal. Effective tariff rates aren’t rising belatedly.
  • Profit-maximising companies still seem to be working around US measures, keeping the impact on inflation and growth smaller than many other economists feared.

By Philip Rush

December 08, 2025
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2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty

  • In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
  • Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
  • However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

By Alastair Newton

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