Archive

July 22, 2024
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Trading Trump 2.0

  • Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, offered a handful of headlines on economic policy in his nomination speech last week. Look more widely, and clues as to what these may mean in practice are to be found even if determining the details of a ‘Trump Trade’ remains challenging.

By Alastair Newton

July 18, 2024
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ECB: September Cut Not Yet Determined

  • The ECB unanimously held its policy rates in July, as widely expected after June’s cut, and refused to pre-commit to any outcome in September.
  • Its policy will depend on the data in the weeks and months ahead, with some policymakers likely to firm up their positions before September’s highlighted meeting.
  • We still expect another cut in September, encouraged by the Fed and BoE also easing policy. However, their premature steps could swiftly require reversals in 2025.

By Philip Rush

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