Archive

October 29, 2025
2025-10-29 UK_head.png

Credit For Inflation

  • Credit and monetary holdings are booming in the UK, enabling consumers to spend their devalued pounds, supporting CPI inflation beyond the target.
  • Falling rates have neutered the refinancing shock, facilitating the affordability of loan demand. Rapid ongoing wage growth further reduces the debt burden.
  • The ECB also sees bullish monetary trends, but they only took it to a good place. The BoE is not in a good place, with policy accommodating above-target inflation pressures.

By Philip Rush

October 27, 2025
2025-10-27 AN_head.png

China/US: Sauce For The Goose…

  • Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s 30 October summit will likely stave off, for now, any further escalation of trade tensions between China and the US.
  • However, thanks to its monopoly on strategic minerals and Xi Jinping’s willingness to play a long game — even beyond ‘mere’ trade — China holds the stronger hand.
  • Irrespective of whatever Mr Trump concedes this week to secure a ‘headline grabber’, Xi Jinping will therefore come back for more, not least on Taiwan.

By Alastair Newton

October 22, 2025
2025-10-22 UK_head.png

UK CPI Trips Into The Fall

  • UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
  • Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
  • Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.

By Philip Rush

October 20, 2025
2025-10-20 credit_head.png

Credit Cockroaches Incubating

  • Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
  • Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
  • It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.

By Philip Rush

By country