Archive

January 06, 2026
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Oil in 2026

  • Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.
  • There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.
  • My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.

By Alastair Newton

December 18, 2025
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BoE: Three Camps, Two Votes, 1 Cut

  • The MPC’s 5:4 vote split delivered another finely balanced rate cut, but the doves are divided, with only two likely to roll straight into supporting another cut in February.
  • Most MPC members favour caution, or an explicitly slower path of rate cuts, which probably means they expect to wait until March or May before easing further.
  • The disinflationary evidence may not arrive with pay settlement plans in the new year, or later, so we still see this as the last BoE rate cut. The global policy cycle is turning.

By Philip Rush

December 18, 2025
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ECB: Wishfully Rolling Disinflation

  • Stronger wage and service price inflation have shrunk the Q1 target undershoot to only 0.1pp, removing the space that doves hoped might free the ECB to cut again.
  • Spending over half the year on hold and in a “good place” creates an inertia that will be hard to break towards another cut. We still see the ECB’s easing cycle as over.
  • Rolling the disinflationary trend back a year helps soften hawkish pressures, but losing this amid ongoing strength seems more likely to push the ECB into a hawkish direction.

By Philip Rush

December 17, 2025
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UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves

  • UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of downside across divisions.
  • However, the news was more concentrated at a component level, leaving the median impulse annualising to 2.3%. We still see underlying pressures driving persistent excess.
  • The Governor sought confirmation of disinflation before cutting rates again, so this surprise should secure that move in December, without any commitment to do more.

By Philip Rush

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