- Global economic prospects and oil prices are weak enough to justify a further output cut when Opec+ meets on 4 December.
By Alastair Newton
- Over the past week, a dearth of data left policy comments featuring more prominently. Thankfully, policymakers are settling into relatively predictable patterns after violent swings earlier this year. We also raised our UK inflation forecasts amid cost pressures.
- Next week’s release calendar is for us dominated by Euro area inflation, where we are a tenth above the consensus and see upside risks to our 10.5% forecast. A higher outcome may drive the ECB while the Fed watches payrolls and we keep an eye on UK mortgages.
By Philip Rush
Dave Ramsden looks back over 2022 and reflects on why the economy and path for inflation have turned out differently. He describes how the series of shocks we’ve been hit with have generated significant uncertainty. That makes predicting the future and setting monetary policy more challenging.