January 07, 2022

HEW: happy new year inflation shocks

  • It has been a relatively light first week back, aside from EA HICP inflation exceeding our above-consensus forecast. Upward price pressures are increasingly spreading to the core, although we still expect a sharp reduction in the January 22 data.
  • Next week is also relatively quiet, with scheduled releases including inflation in Sweden and Norway. Euro Area unemployment and UK GDP data may also give some indication of the economic impact of sharp energy price rises ahead of coronavirus restrictions.
  • Heteronomics also published a summary of our UK and EA economic views as well as the global political risks that policymakers will have to navigate in 2022.

January 06, 2022

HEM: squeezing into 2022

  • Excess inflation is moving from energy to the core
  • Renewed restrictions are squeezing winter activity
  • The BoE is likely to tighten less than priced in 2022
  • The ECB is still gradually slowing its stimulus

January 04, 2022
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Politics: Outlook 2022

  • There is no shortage of political risks for 2022. Our Top 10 includes China’s relations with the US and Taiwan, Russia’s with Ukraine, Iran and the world, plus elections in the US mid-terms, Brazil, France, and potentially among UK Conservatives for a new PM.

By Alastair Newton