Archive

Waller - Thoughts on the Economy and Policy Rules at the Federal Open Market Committee

In his speech, Governor Christopher J. Waller outlines a relatively positive outlook for the U.S. economy, emphasizing resilience in the labor market and the stronger-than-expected economic growth indicated by recent data revisions. Despite acknowledging recent upticks in inflation, he underscores progress made over the past year and argues that inflationary pressures might remain modest. Waller is optimistic about achieving the Federal Open Market Committee's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. He highlights a careful yet steady approach toward reducing the federal funds rate with the use of monetary policy rules serving as a guide. The governor suggests a prudent stance on rate cuts, implying a gradual reduction aligned with economic conditions, while maintaining readiness to adjust course should inflation surprise on the upside or if the labor market deteriorates.

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**Positivity:** 80
**Uncertainty:** 50

UK Politics: A Fresh Start?

• Although there is still more to be done to sort out the malaise at the heart of government, last week’s Downing Street shake-out and this month’s budget offer Labour a much-needed opportunity to present and promote a clearer indication of its intended course.

By Alastair Newton

Dhingra - Monetary Policy: Lessons from the pandemic

Given at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th anniversary high-level conference


Swati Dhingra's speech at the RBI@90 event addresses the substantial challenges monetary policy faces amid exceptional global circumstances including the Covid-19 pandemic and energy price shocks. Dhingra highlights persistent and systematic forecast errors across central banks, acknowledging the limitations of model-based forecasts during significant shocks. The speech emphasizes the need for adapting monetary policy tools, as traditional metrics like core inflation have become less reliable in the context of fragmented production and complex supply chains. Additionally, Dhingra stresses the importance of data innovations and robust research designs to gain forward-looking insights. Ultimately, the speech calls for refined monetary policy approaches that better incorporate real-time data and external economic shocks, particularly noting the complex influences of geopolitical developments and climate change.



- Positivity: 60
- Uncertainty: 80

Bowman - Challenges to the Community Banking Model

Governor Michelle W. Bowman's speech at the Community Bankers Symposium highlights several challenges and opportunities facing community banks within the current regulatory and competitive landscape. The speech underscores the critical role of community banks in local economies while acknowledging the increased regulatory pressures they face. Bowman emphasizes the necessity for regulators and banks to collaboratively address risks and learn from past regulatory missteps, such as those evident in the management failures surrounding Silicon Valley Bank. Cybersecurity and third-party risk management are highlighted as key areas of concern, necessitating robust operational resilience and a strong regulatory framework. Significantly, the evolving competitive landscape—marked by internet banks, fin-techs, and non-bank entities—requires regulators to ensure a level playing field without distortion. Bowman calls for a more uniform regulatory approach that does not disproportionately disadvantage community banks. Overall, the speech advocates for regulatory frameworks that support financial stability while encouraging innovation and competition.



- Positivity: 65
- Uncertainty: 50