July 15, 2024
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Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

  • The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

July 12, 2024
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HEW: Doves Ticking Boxes

  • Voters know what they don’t want, with the French overcompensating in their rejection of Rassemblement National. Central bankers have their lists and will welcome progress towards the rate cuts we still expect in September (Fed and ECB) and August (BoE).
  • Next week’s ECB meeting should confirm that deferred step without committing after reflecting on the final HICP print. The UK’s inflation and labour market data are the most critical data sets left to inform August’s decision after June’s finely balanced one.

By Philip Rush

July 12, 2024

US CPI Inflation 2.97% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jun-24

- US CPI inflation for June 2024, at 2.97% y-o-y, is below the consensus and demonstrates successfully moderating inflationary pressures.
- Core inflation is higher, at 3.3%, but the monthly impulse reassuringly slowed to 0.1%. Mixed PPI trends indicate some price pressures persist, but the Fed is increasingly likely to cut in September.

July 11, 2024

Peru Policy Interest Rate 5.75% (consensus 5.75%) in Jul-24

  • The BCRP maintained its policy rate at 5.75% again, aligning with consensus expectations, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent core inflation and a stable overall inflation outlook.
  • Future rate adjustments will be based on continuous monitoring of inflation trends, core inflation persistence, and economic indicators, ensuring a responsive and flexible monetary policy.
  • The Board remains committed to maintaining inflation within the target range, emphasizing price stability amid global economic uncertainties and potential market volatilities.