March 13, 2023
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US: Undeclared, But On The Trail

  • In addition to being an opening shot over the debt ceiling, President Joe Biden’s budget proposals confirm that he is already campaigning for a second term even though, in common with the Republican Party’s Ron DeSantis, he has yet formally to declare.

By Alastair Newton

March 10, 2023

HEW: Resilience into Policy Updates

  • Over the past week, data have continued to surprise on the upside, encouraging hawkish expectations, albeit tempered by Silicon Valley Bank’s struggles. We still see no sign of excessive inflation expectations breaking in the UK.
  • Next week’s calendar is packed with final EA inflation data and policy announcements in the UK Budget and ECB decision. We expect no HICP revision, a cancelled energy price hike, and tighter policy guidance that risks disappointing through its flexibility.

By Philip Rush

March 10, 2023
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UK: Output Partially Resumes in Jan-23

  • UK GDP started 2023 with a slightly fuller rebound, continuing the skew towards upside surprises. Resilience was broad across services sectors.
  • Strikes at schools failed to knock activity as much as those in other sectors or even prevent a rebound from the sickness-depressed attendance in December.
  • The Q1 decline now looks likely to be only marginal, although we continue to expect a recession this year as excessive inflation and demand eventually get squeezed out.

By Philip Rush