Archive

September 15, 2021
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UK: entertaining inflation in Aug-21

  • UK inflation data resumed its tendency to exceed expectations in Aug-21 as record rises in the growth rate took the CPI to 3.2% and RPI to 4.8%. The CPI puts more weight on the jump in games prices. Most shocks in both directions are likely to unwind partly.
  • Although this release doesn’t throw our Sep-21 forecasts, exploding energy prices have caused substantial changes over the past month. Lags in the transmission mean Apr-22 bears the brunt, taking over as the CPI peak and stretching the transitory excess.

September 14, 2021
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UK: employers await workers in Q4

  • The unemployment rate declined again to 4.6% in Jul-21, matching expectations but diverging from the rising rate reported by repeat survey respondents. October remains the real test for the labour market as furlough and self-employment grants end.
  • Ludicrously lucrative government grants have been capping the self-employed at 70% of effort, depriving some desperately constrained sectors of up to 11% of hours. Narrow and temporary issues are not raising overall pay trends, so wage growth will collapse.

September 14, 2021
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Norway: no need to wear Green

  • Norway’s election results show a swing to the left, with Labour, Centre and Socialist Left having a combined majority of five in the new parliament. Crucially, these three parties can govern without the support of the Green Party.
  • We see limited implications of the result for investors, with the Norges Bank still set to raise the policy rate on 23 September.