March 03, 2023
China/US: How Low Can They Go?
- China/US relations seem sure to continue to deteriorate come what may. However, if China starts supplying Russia with weapons, that deterioration would accelerate markedly. Although this seems unlikely at present, a successful Ukrainian spring offensive could shift the calculus.
By Alastair Newton
March 02, 2023
EA: HICP Scarcely Slows Pace in Feb-23
- Flash EA inflation only slowed by 15bp to 8.49% in Feb-23. That was 18bp above our forecast but 0.3pp above the consensus, breaking the downward surprise trend.
- Germany contributed the most upside to our view, but there was a broad skew higher in food prices, core goods, and headline rates outside the big-4 countries.
- Powerful base effects should still trigger a steep drop in March, but resilience in core and food price inflation reinforces our hawkish view of a stronger underlying trend.
By Philip Rush
March 01, 2023
Bailey - The cost of living
Andrew Bailey shares what we learnt from talking to people at our outreach events across the UK during the past year.