November 16, 2022
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UK: Energised Inflation Is Not Controlled

  • UK inflation surged beyond even our substantially above-consensus forecast to hit 11.1% on the CPI and 14.2% on the RPI in Oct-22. Food prices drove most of the upside for us.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain far too high. The monthly impulse in the median rate is near its highs, as are the annual rates of most other metrics.
  • We still see this as the peak, but a repeat of recent upside news could easily extend that further in the next few months. Energy price cap changes could also stoke Apr-23.

By Philip Rush

November 15, 2022
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UK: Labour Fits the Fall Season

  • The UK unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.6% as the single-month rate surged by 0.3pp. It is tracking a rise towards 3.8% in Q4, about 0.1pp above the BoE view.
  • Demand in the official vacancies and redundancies data is falling further from their peak, toward the Adzuna version, but continues to imply a cushion to output falls.
  • This surprise restores the cyclical ageing of the labour market while remaining outside the “burn-out” phase. We still see hawkish pressure fitting a 50bp BoE hike in Dec-22.

By Philip Rush

November 14, 2022
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US Politics: Trumped?

  • Despite the strength of his performance in last week’s gubernatorial election in Florida, Ron DeSantis still has a long way to go if he is to beat Donald Trump for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination. One way or the other, however, Trumpism is alive and well.

By Alastair Newton