September 28, 2023

UK Lloyds business confidence balance 36.0 in Sep-23

- The UK Lloyds business confidence balance in September 2023 decreased to 36.0, marking the lowest level since July 2023. However, it remains 9.08 points above the one-year average and 8.00 points above the long-run average.
- The UK Lloyds business staffing balance stood at 25.0 in September 2023, reflecting the hiring intentions of UK businesses.

September 28, 2023
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Cook - Closing Remarks

In her concluding remarks at the Minorities in Banking Forum, Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasizes the importance of promoting a healthy economy that works for everyone. She highlights the significance of trust in building successful banks and fostering economic decision-making. The forum, supported by the Federal Reserve Bank and its regional Reserve Banks, aims to provide opportunities for professional development, connect participants to the Federal Reserve's work, and expand the network of diverse banking professionals. Governor Cook encourages continued conversations, networking, and mentorship to advance careers with a sense of purpose and engagement in the communities they serve.

Positivity Score: 80
Uncertainty Score: 10

September 28, 2023

Saudi Arabia M3 money supply 9.59% y-o-y in Aug-23

- The M3 money supply in Saudi Arabia recorded its highest year-on-year growth since March 2023, reaching 9.59% in August 2023.
- This growth is 0.68 percentage points higher than the one-year average and 1.05 percentage points above the long-run average, suggesting potential policy changes or economic shifts in Saudi Arabia.

September 28, 2023
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EA Slowdown Exaggerated in Summers

  • PMIs place the Euro area as the global epicentre of current weakness, which is as bad as last year. Similarity may not be a coincidence: the trough may be imminent.
  • 2020’s crash appears to be polluting the seasonal adjustment of many datasets. The ESI fell less in lockdown and looks less distorted. Indeed, it has proven resilient recently.
  • Monetary policy should be more sensitive to unemployment and inflation. We still expect no more ECB rate hikes and a final 25bp step from the BoE in November.

By Philip Rush