March 03, 2023
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China/US: How Low Can They Go?

  • China/US relations seem sure to continue to deteriorate come what may. However, if China starts supplying Russia with weapons, that deterioration would accelerate markedly. Although this seems unlikely at present, a successful Ukrainian spring offensive could shift the calculus.

By Alastair Newton

March 02, 2023
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EA: HICP Scarcely Slows Pace in Feb-23

  • Flash EA inflation only slowed by 15bp to 8.49% in Feb-23. That was 18bp above our forecast but 0.3pp above the consensus, breaking the downward surprise trend.
  • Germany contributed the most upside to our view, but there was a broad skew higher in food prices, core goods, and headline rates outside the big-4 countries.
  • Powerful base effects should still trigger a steep drop in March, but resilience in core and food price inflation reinforces our hawkish view of a stronger underlying trend.

By Philip Rush

March 01, 2023

Bailey - The cost of living

Andrew Bailey shares what we learnt from talking to people at our outreach events across the UK during the past year.