Archive

January 22, 2026
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Norway's Restrictive Pause Amid Inflation Dilemma

  • Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4% as expected, reiterating that cuts are likely later in 2026 but only if disinflation progresses as projected.
  • Guidance points to one or two cuts this year, but policymakers stress a restrictive stance until underlying inflation, stuck near 3%, moves closer to the 2% target.
  • A March cut looks unlikely; the path and timing of easing hinge on labour market softening, cost pressures, and krone moves ahead of new forecasts in March.
January 22, 2026
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BNM: Flexibility Amid Global Bifurcation

  • BNM kept its OPR at 2.75%, in line with the consensus. Benign inflation and solid growth justify a steady near-term rate path.
  • With inflation anchored near 2% and growth resilient, policy stays neutral, preserving flexibility rather than signalling a clear hike or cut bias.
  • Future rate moves hinge on tariff and global inflation risks. Shocks to trade or prices could shift BNM from a prolonged hold to recalibration.

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