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HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void

• Most central bank decisions surprised consensus expectations this week, despite the void over the US situation. Neutral rate views often contributed to the directional news.
• The Fed is encouraged to ease by the lack of evidence not to, stimulating market values further. The UK government is suffering from another likely downgrade to productivity.
• Next week’s calendar is thinned by the possible delay of the US CPI data, leaving the EA as the inflationary highlight. The UK gets a potentially hawkish labour market report.

By Philip Rush

Peru Holds Rates Near Neutral at 4.25%

• Peru held rates at 4.25% as expected, near its neutral level, with inflation at 1.4% approaching the target midpoint by year-end.
• Policy pause reflects balanced risks: benign domestic inflation vs global trade restrictions weighing on medium-term growth outlook.
• Future moves depend on inflation drivers, but immediate easing is unlikely given the proximity to the 2% neutral real rate estimate.