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HEW: Dovish Data Dumps

• Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment rates raise eyebrows.
• Policymakers behaved themselves, with no surprises and wide dispersion, including a BOJ hike, while the BoE delivered the finely balanced hawkish cut we expected.
• The release calendar adopts a holiday stance for the next few weeks, with only UK and US Q3 GDP data out before Christmas. This publication will be back on 9 January.

By Philip Rush

BOJ: Measured Steps Toward Normalisation

• A hike to 0.75% was delivered as expected, reflecting confidence in wage-led inflation momentum, though real rates remain deeply negative and uncertainty around trade policy and wage sustainability persists.
• Future tightening hinges critically on 2026 spring wage negotiations reaching 5%+ and underlying inflation remaining firm as food-price effects wane. Some dissenting board members questioned inflation's near-term durability.
• Real interest rates at significantly negative levels permit gradual tightening toward the estimated 1-2.5% neutral range, with markets pricing 1.0% by mid-2026. Limited runway and external risks may constrain the pace of normalisation.