Archive

HEW: Heavy Hitters Pulling Punches

• Sentiment stabilised this week as credit issues are realised to be more of a long-term problem than an imminent issue. Indonesia and Korea hawkishly held their policy rates.
• Inflation undershot final expectations in the UK and US, yet constitutes less excess rather than outright weakness, and merely aligns with slightly earlier forecasts.
• Next week’s release calendar has some heavy hitters, but pulling their punches. The Fed cut and ECB hold are widely expected, as is a marginal slowing in EA inflation.

By Philip Rush

Korea Holds at 2.50%: Stability First

• The BoK held at 2.50%, as expected. Housing is overheating, and Won weakness above 1,400 constrains the scope for near-term cuts despite weak growth.​
• Four of six board members support further easing. November's decision hinges on trade talks, real estate trends, and exchange rate stability.​
• Semiconductor exports surge 22% but US tariffs weigh on outlook. The GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 0.9% for 2025, the slowest since 2020.​