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November 05, 2025
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Swedish Rate Pause: Recovery Rising, Risks Remain

  • The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, matching consensus. Inflation is easing but is still above target, signalling little chance of cuts or hikes in the near term.​
  • A weak labour market offset stronger-than-expected Q3 growth. Policymakers are watching household demand closely to assess the durability of the recovery before shifting rates.​
  • Ongoing risks from geopolitics, trade, and fiscal policy keep the future rate path uncertain, with market pricing in steady rates through 2026 barring major shocks.
November 05, 2025
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Brazil's Cautious Monetary Pause

  • Brazil's Copom holds Selic at 15% as expected, but signals a very prolonged pause ahead with rates to stay elevated while inflation expectations remain deanchored above target.
  • The committee emphasises that a contractionary policy is needed despite moderate growth, citing tariff risks, currency depreciation pass-through, and resilient labour market pressures.
  • Rate hikes remain optionally available if inflation expectations fail to re-anchor, but markets now price March 2026 easing, contingent on fiscal discipline and external stability.

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