Archive

January 09, 2026
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HEW: Turning 2026 Resiliently

  • A festive feast in resilient GDP data has extended into tracking estimates for Q4 in the US and UK, while the US unemployment rate has fallen from revision-tempered highs.
  • Falling PMIs were less encouraging, but don’t break resilient signals nor persistently excessive inflation signals. Plans to recover profit margins add to the BoE’s challenge.
  • Next week’s US inflation data provides the first clean monthly rate after November’s nonsensical gap-filling. UK GDP data for November is the other highlight for us.

By Philip Rush

January 08, 2026
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BoE Faces Renewed Margin Pressure

  • CFOs suffered squeezed margins in 2025 that they intend to partly recover in 2026, reversing a source of disinflation into another reason for hawkish concern.
  • Price and wage inflation expectations remain excessive while the November crash in employment sentiment reversed, dampening the dovish ammunition.
  • The MPC’s three pivotal members need dovish news to bring forward another cut not implied until at least April. This outcome merely encourages the inactive course.

By Philip Rush

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