Archive

November 14, 2025
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HEW: Back To Business

  • The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
  • UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

By Philip Rush

November 13, 2025
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UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom

  • UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
  • Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
  • Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

By Philip Rush

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