Archive

November 12, 2025
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Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman

  • Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
  • Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
  • In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.

By Alastair Newton

November 11, 2025
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UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut

  • Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
  • Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
  • Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

By Philip Rush

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