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Oil in 2026

• Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.
• There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.
• My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.

By Alastair Newton

HEM: Jan-26 Views & Challenges

• Hawkish cuts led markets to price less easing, or even hikes, but there was little change in BoE views.
• The MPC is split in the face of wage growth persistently above target-consistent levels but is bias to ease in May.
• Rising unemployment rates may aid the appropriateness of previous cuts if the neutral rate is less elevated.