Archive

EA Inflation Less Excessive Near Peak

• The final Euro area inflation print for November trimmed its rise by 4bps, rounding it down to 2.2% y-o-y. Revisions were broadly spread over the special aggregates.
• Median inflation remains close to annualising at 2%, although Germany is excessive like the UK. Our projections for underlying pressures softened slightly over the past month.
• In our view, EA inflation will still slow to the 2% target in a few months and stay near there through 2025. Forceful ECB easing could break that benign outlook.

By Philip Rush

Thailand: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Dec-24

• The Bank of Thailand unanimously maintained the policy rate at 2.25%, aligning with consensus expectations, citing alignment with economic potential and inflation within target expectations.
• Economic growth projections for 2024–2025 remain steady, but uneven sectoral recovery, particularly in manufacturing and SMEs, presents ongoing risks to sustainable recovery.
• Global economic uncertainties, credit growth trends, and the efficacy of government debt-relief programmes in supporting domestic demand and financial stability will influence future policy decisions.