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January 16, 2026
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HEW: Steady Start To 2026

  • UK GDP data set Q4 up to match Q3, while monthly US inflation held in December precisely where it was before the shutdown noisily disrupted the dataflow.
  • The case for easing remains thin, and there isn’t much scope to change that before the next decisions. The BOK delivered the year’s first policy news by cutting its easing bias.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be dampened by prices being sampled too early for Christmas surge pricing. It's broadly a busy week for UK and Euro area data.

By Philip Rush

January 15, 2026
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UK: Turning the Statistical Corner

  • The UK GDP surprise flipped to exceed expectations with 0.3% m-o-m growth in Nov-25 as residual seasonality turned past its trough. We now track 0.14% q-o-q for Q4.
  • Further upside news is likely over the next few months as output surges again in Q1, pushing back dovish hopes for another rate cut. We still see the cutting cycle as over.
  • Economists prefer to tell fundamental stories, ignoring statistical ones, but we should not be shocked by the impact of the predictable surprises created by this shortcoming.

By Philip Rush

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