Archive

January 19, 2026
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EA: Food Prices Take Another Bite

  • EA inflation printed lower than the flash again at 1.94%, also because of food prices, but the 1.6bp nibble out of the headline rate still isn’t fundamentally significant.
  • Median inflation remains stuck below the target, offsetting the hawkish signal from other underlying statistical measures that better reflect the resilience of wage growth.
  • The ECB can remain comfortable with its “good place” assessment until it sees more evidence of inflation persistence stoking the headline. We still see no more ECB cuts.

By Philip Rush

January 16, 2026
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HEW: Steady Start To 2026

  • UK GDP data set Q4 up to match Q3, while monthly US inflation held in December precisely where it was before the shutdown noisily disrupted the dataflow.
  • The case for easing remains thin, and there isn’t much scope to change that before the next decisions. The BOK delivered the year’s first policy news by cutting its easing bias.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be dampened by prices being sampled too early for Christmas surge pricing. It's broadly a busy week for UK and Euro area data.

By Philip Rush

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