January 14, 2022

HEW: activity exceeding expectations

  • UK GDP exceeded expectations as a broad-based recovery restored pre-covid levels. We raise our Q4 forecast even though we expect the economy to take a hit from renewed Covid restrictions. The EA labour market is no laggard to activity elsewhere.
  • Next week, our UK inflation forecast is almost 0.2pp lower than the market’s view, with a 5.0% CPI and a 7.1% RPI rate. EA inflation is likely to be confirmed at 5.0%. There isn’t enough carry-over from the surprising strength in Sweden and Norway to up-end that.
  • In Heteronomics news, Quentin Wray, an experienced financial journalist and editor, has joined the team to work on our range of publications, including this one.

January 13, 2022
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The Italian Job

  • Mario Draghi may try to persuade President Sergio Mattarella to follow a precedent set in 2013 and stand for an abbreviated second term. That would provide Mr Draghi with time to oversee the legislating and implementation of critical structural reforms before a general election must occur in June 2023. It would also leave him with a good chance of achieving his longstanding ambition to occupy Italy’s top job.

By Alastair Newton

January 11, 2022
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The Price of Oil in 2022

  • Forecasting the yearend price of oil is even more fraught than usual, but the signs are that Opec+ may well be looking for something a little higher than the current USD82pb.

By Alastair Newton