Archive

UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day

• With the balance of how many seats Labour loses to Reform UK relative to the LibDems and Greens being potentially decisive in internal party wrangling, the outcomes of the 1 May local elections and a concurrent by-election stand to have a significant impact on government policy.

By Alastair Newton

HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

• US policy kept driving volatility over Easter. Sensible responses to market weakness may be matched on the upside with MAGA shocks, creating a Trump Collar to pricing. Yet the global economy is unfazed by the attacks and uncertainty, contrary to the consensus.
• Next week’s release calendar is heavier with data, including some that provide needed colour on current conditions. US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April are highlights, with Q1 EA and US GDP probably discounted by the market as old news.

By Philip Rush

DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

• President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
• Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
• DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.

By Philip Rush

Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.75%) in Apr-25

• Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.75%, in line with expectations, with a cautious stance to safeguard price stability and currency fundamentals amid heightened global uncertainty stemming from US-China trade tensions.
• A resilient external position—anchored by a robust trade surplus, substantial reserves, and controlled inflation—has enabled the central bank to manage volatility while preserving policy flexibility.
• With inflation subdued and global headwinds intensifying, Bank Indonesia retains an easing bias, with future rate cuts contingent on inflation dynamics, Rupiah stability, and international capital flow conditions.