Archive

Australia Unemployment Rate 4.05% (consensus 3.9%) in Apr-24

- The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.05% in April 2024, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.9% by returning to the highest level since January.
- That slackening occurred despite a surprisingly large employment increase of 38,500 in April, owing to faster labour force growth.

EA GDP Rebounds Without Productivity

• Eurostat's second estimate confirmed the EA’s 0.3% q-o-q rebound out of technical recession. That fully recovers the H2 fall, although it was partial for Germany.
• Employment growth matched GDP in Q1, extending the persistently poor productivity performance. Eastern Europe’s structural catch-up is a relatively small bright spot.
• Jobs-intensive growth is keeping unemployment at its lows even as it rises elsewhere. EA potential looks relatively impaired rather than facing tighter monetary conditions.

By Philip Rush

UK: Excessive Pay Problem Persists

• UK unemployment increased again to 4.3% in March, as expected. The Q1 deterioration still looks spurious, like the preceding strength, but the extent of change is slowing.
• Vacancies are falling, but so are redundancies. Incumbent workers enjoy high pay increases despite reduced demand for new workers amid broadly high expectations.
• Average earnings surged beyond expectations again. The absence of progress in pay settlements prevents slowing to a target-consistent pace, but the BoE seems unfazed.

By Philip Rush

Canada Unemployment Rate 6.1% (consensus 6.2%) in Apr-24

- Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1% in Apr-24, contrary to consensus expectations for another rise to 6.2%.
- The unemployment rate has been trending higher over the past year, but the employment level surged by 90.4k in April.