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Sweden Policy Rate 3.75% (consensus 3.75%) in May-24

• The Riksbank reduced the policy rate to 3.75%, motivated by inflation nearing the target amid a weakening economic outlook, with indications of further rate cuts if the favourable inflation outlook persists.
• Based on ongoing economic evaluations, future interest rate decisions will be cautiously managed, with potential additional rate reductions contingent on sustained positive inflation trends and economic stability.
• The central bank remains cautious about inflation risks related to external economic factors and the krona's volatility, ensuring a responsive and flexible monetary policy to navigate potential economic fluctuations effectively.

Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24

- Sweden's unemployment rate surged to 9.2% in Mar-24, surpassing the consensus estimate of 8.2%, marking the highest level since Jun-23.
- The current unemployment rate is 1.31 percentage points above the one-year average, signifying a significant deviation amid a worrying deterioration in the labour market.

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.1% y-o-y (consensus 4.4) in Mar-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation in March 2024 slowed to 4.1% y-o-y, well below the consensus expectation of 4.4% and marking the lowest growth rate since January 2022.
- Although the inflation rate remains high, it is 2.86 pp below the 1-year average. The CPIF also slowed surprisingly far to 2.2%.

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.5% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Feb-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation for February 2024 was 4.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 4.7%, suggesting a surprise moderation in inflationary pressures.
- The current inflation rate is close to the December 2023 lows, so it is significantly below the one-year average.