Archive

China CPI 0.3% y-o-y (consensus 0.2%) in Apr-24

- China's April 2024 CPI exceeded market expectations, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, suggesting sustained inflationary pressures.
- It is reassuring to see the CPI's current growth breaking above the one-year average, helping to end the excessively disinflationary trend.

China CPI 0.1% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in Mar-24

- China's CPI growth in March 2024 was 0.1% y-o-y, significantly below market consensus and marking the lowest growth since January 2024.
- Although the figure is 0.18pp above the one-year average, the slight improvement from falling prices emphasises the problem's persistence.

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

On A Slow Boat To China

• As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton