Archive

UK: Excessive Pay Problem Persists

• UK unemployment increased again to 4.3% in March, as expected. The Q1 deterioration still looks spurious, like the preceding strength, but the extent of change is slowing.
• Vacancies are falling, but so are redundancies. Incumbent workers enjoy high pay increases despite reduced demand for new workers amid broadly high expectations.
• Average earnings surged beyond expectations again. The absence of progress in pay settlements prevents slowing to a target-consistent pace, but the BoE seems unfazed.

By Philip Rush

India CPI Inflation 4.83% y-o-y (consensus 4.8%) in Apr-24

- India's CPI inflation in April 2024 was broadly in line with expectations and the previous month at 4.83% y-o-y.
- However, this growth represents the lowest inflation rate since May 2023 and is below both the one-year average and long-run average, which could have significant implications for economic policies and decision-making.

Jefferson - Communicating about Monetary Policy

In this speech, Philip Jefferson discusses the importance of effective communication in monetary policy. He highlights the various communication channels currently used by the Federal Reserve, such as statements, minutes, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and reports. He emphasizes the significance of listening to economic data and conducting surveys to inform decision-making. Clear communication is seen as crucial for the transmission of monetary policy and its impact on interest rates and financial conditions. The evolution of central bank communications over the years is explored, including the shift towards transparency and the adoption of new tools like forward guidance. The potential challenges and unintended consequences of communication are also acknowledged. Jefferson concludes by encouraging further research on the effectiveness of central bank communication.


Positivity: 80
Uncertainty: 60

US Politics: Taking Trump At His Word

• If Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025, he will hit the ground running with an agenda that, among other things, stands to be deeply damaging to Europe both economically and politically. Europeans in denial should listen more carefully to his speeches and take him at his word.

By Alastair Newton