Activity

The breadth and depth of activity indicators can sometimes seem overwhelming, and the time to understand the relevance of even just the conventional sources can be prohibitive. Finding alpha requires specialist knowledge of the biases and interrelationships, including with alternative sources. Heteronomics uses its wealth of experience to help clients see through all the noise to the true signals, and shares both the data and methods to support its conclusions.

Nowcast

There is an abundance of data indicating the current rate of activity growth that come from official and private survey sources. Each has strengths and weaknesses that may mean some sources gain or lose relevance under certain circumstances. 


Detailed analysis of the various releases for well over a decade means Heteronomics has an unrivalled ability to extract the real signal from all the noise. That directly feeds into the "nowcast", but as the launching off point for the rest of the forecast, it helps form a robust base for the wider macro outlook, including for monetary policy.

Supply-side

Heteronomics rigorously analyses data in search of signals about the supply side of the economy. This often overlooked side is essential to interpreting developments and anticipating future trends. Unlike the woefully simplistic consensus view, insights are drawn from the fact that the factors of production differ from each other in ways that are significant. Failure to respect this is partly responsible for the failure of others to understand key features of recent economic performance, like the persistent weakness in productivity.

Macromodel

Macroeconomic models are a much maligned tool, partly because economists have frequently focused on theoretical purity, despite some seriously unrealistic assumptions. Accurate results are more important to us, so we use a parsimonious system of equations that are designed to best-fit the data in a consistent and manageable way. By relaxing some conventionally bad assumptions in the process, Heteronomics often produces counter-consensus forecasts with a widely respected track-record of performance.

Alternative data

Markets mostly move on the headlines of releases, but optimally considering the implications and anticipating them often relies upon looking where others aren't. Heteronomics uses a variety of alternative data sources to understand activity data (as well as inflation). 


Data scraped from the web or derived from the micro sources underlying other releases are regularly consulted to provide unique insights on the real economy. This modern computationally-intensive approach is a significant support to forecast performance.

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