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February 07, 2024
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Colombia CPI Inflation 0.92% m-o-m (consensus 0.9%) in Jan-24

- Colombia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.92% in January 2024, marking the highest level of inflation since March 2023, but not surprisingly so.
- The current inflation rate exceeds the one-year average by 0.25 percentage points and is back to the long-run average, indicating a potential resurgence in pricing pressures and the need for careful analysis and policy responses.


January 31, 2024
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Colombia Policy Interest Rate 12.75% (consensus 12.5%) in Jan-24

  • The Banco de la República Colombia's cautious 25 basis point interest rate cut to 12.75%, against the consensus expectation of a 50 basis point reduction, reflects a strategy that is responsive to the ongoing decline in inflation, mixed sector-specific inflationary signals and a commitment to gradual monetary easing.
  • Economic projections remain steady, with improving external financial conditions and a significant correction in the current account deficit, providing a backdrop for the conservative rate cut despite a stronger peso and reduced sovereign risk.
  • The Board's decision-making process emphasizes a vigilant stance toward inflation convergence, mindful of wage policy impacts and global risks, while maintaining a clear orientation towards data-driven policy adjustments.

January 10, 2024
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Colombia CPI Inflation 0.45% m-o-m (consensus 0.6%) in Dec-23

- Colombia's CPI inflation increased by 0.45% m-o-m in December 2023, falling slightly short of the consensus forecast of 0.6%.
- This growth rate is only marginally less than in November and much higher than in October 2023. Pricing trends currently appear stable around this level in Colombia.


December 19, 2023
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Colombia Policy Interest Rate 13% (consensus 13%) in Dec-23

  • The Banco de la República Colombia's interest rate cut by 25 bps to 13.00% aligned with the economic consensus, reflecting the Board's response to the sustained decline in inflation and a commitment to support economic activity amidst a backdrop of mixed inflation expectations.
  • External improvements, including a stronger currency and reduced sovereign risk, coupled with the Board's caution against wage-induced inflationary pressures, demonstrate a strategic approach to balance growth with inflation targeting.
  • Future monetary policy adjustments will remain contingent on incoming data, with the overarching objective of bringing inflation closer to the 3% target while monitoring global financial developments and domestic economic indicators.