Archive

Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

• The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

Kuwait CPI Inflation 0.2% m-o-m in Jan-24

- Kuwait's CPI inflation remained unchanged at 0.2% m-o-m in January 2024, displaying stability month-on-month.
- Moreover, the current inflation rate is only 0.08 percentage points below the 1-year average.

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Kuwait CPI Inflation 0.2% m-o-m in Nov-23

- The Kuwait CPI inflation rate was 0.2% month-on-month in November 2023, marking the lowest growth rate since July 2023 and a decline from the previous month's rate of 0.4%.
- November's inflation rate is 0.12 percentage points below the one-year average, supporting signs of a relative easing of inflationary pressures in Kuwait.