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L Mann - The Great Moderation 20 years on

Catherine L. Mann reflects on the last forty years of the ‘Great Moderation’. She compares and contrasts arguments that ‘good policy’ or ‘good luck’ may have brought about more macroeconomic stability. She then discusses the likely sources of higher volatility in the future, including climate change, global trade fragmentation, financial market volatility, and policy volatility. Catherine concludes by outlining the appropriate monetary policy strategy in a more volatile world.

Catherine L Mann's speech revisits the concept of the "Great Moderation," a period characterized by reduced macroeconomic volatility, frequently attributed to improved monetary policy and good economic fortune. She suggests that the stability enjoyed during that period may not continue into the future, anticipating elevated volatility due to various global challenges, including climate change, protectionist policies, and domestic factors like demographics and technological change. Mann argues that monetary policy remains a crucial tool for stabilizing economic growth and maintaining public trust in central banks. She also notes the significant role of global shocks in influencing domestic inflation, particularly for the UK as a small open economy. Drawing lessons from history, she stresses the importance of robust monetary policy frameworks and the need to adapt to new economic conditions while maintaining credibility and stability.

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- Positivity: 70
- Uncertainty: 80

Kugler - Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Governor Adriana D. Kugler's speech highlights the key role of central bank independence in crafting effective monetary policy necessary for long-term economic stability and low inflation. She underscores the historical context of high inflation in different regions and its impact on policy decisions today. The speech sheds light on how the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability necessitates a balanced approach to economic challenges. Governor Kugler cautions that although there has been significant disinflation, particular areas like housing and certain services still pose risks to achieving inflation targets. The cooling labor market reflects the Fed's delicate balancing act of moderating inflation without hampering employment growth. Moreover, the speech addresses the importance of transparency and credibility in central banks, which play a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations about long-term inflation. Overall, the speech provides an understanding of how autonomy in monetary policymaking contributes to stable economic conditions.


Positivity: 70
Uncertainty: 60

Waller - What Roles Should the Private Sector and the Federal Reserve Play in Payments?

Governor Christopher J. Waller's speech emphasizes the evolving roles of the private sector and the Federal Reserve in the U.S. payments system, advocating for minimal government intervention unless necessary to solve specific inefficiencies. Waller underscores that the private sector, driven by competition, is best situated to innovate and efficiently allocate resources. He illustrates this with examples from history, such as the Panic of 1907 and the foundation of the Federal Reserve. The speech also points to modern examples like the FedNow initiative, aiming to resolve coordination challenges in instant payments. Waller is cautious of excessive public sector involvement potentially stifling private innovation, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should focus on supporting private-sector innovations and ensuring stability rather than dictating progress.



Positivity: 75
Uncertainty: 65

Bailey - The future of money and payments

In this speech, Andrew Bailey emphasises the need to modernise payment systems, particularly cross-border and wholesale payments, by harnessing digital technology. He discusses the roles of central bank and commercial bank money, the importance of innovation, and the potential for a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) if innovation in commercial banks does not happen.


In his speech, Andrew Bailey discusses the need to modernize payment systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly highlighting the slow progress in cross-border payment modernization. He underscores the potential benefits of digital technology in modernizing payment practices and asserts the importance of retaining traditional features such as cash for as long as there is public demand. Bailey makes a distinction between retail and wholesale payments, suggesting that while retail payments can use either central or commercial bank money, central bank money plays a critical role in wholesale transactions, serving as the system anchor. He emphasizes the necessity for central banks to encourage and potentially provide innovation in digital payments, although he prefers such developments to occur within commercial banks. He stresses that if commercial bank innovation lags, central banks may need to lead in retail payments innovation, further noting the structural barriers inhibiting technology and infrastructure developments that could prevent such innovations.

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- Positivity: 70
- Uncertainty: 60