Archive

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Oman CPI Inflation 0.1% m-o-m in Nov-23

- Oman's CPI inflation increased by 0.1% in November 2023, partially normalising after October's fall.
- The current inflation is only slightly above the 1-year average by 0.05 percentage points and remains 0.09 percentage points below the long-run average.

Oil: Lower For Longer?

• Although Opec+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree to modest additional trimming, growth in non-Opec+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024.

By Alastair Newton

Oman CPI Inflation -0.2% m-o-m in Oct-23

- Oman's CPI inflation experienced a decline of 0.2% on a monthly basis in October 2023, reaching its lowest point since May 2023.
- The October 2023 inflation rate was only 0.22 percentage points below the one-year average, with the annual rate languishing at 0.3% y-o-y.