Heteronomics Archive

March 21, 2025

Chile: Policy Rate Held At 5.0% (Consensus 5.0%) in Mar-25

The Central Bank of Chile held the policy rate at 5%, as expected, reflecting caution due to persistent inflation risks despite stronger-than-forecasted economic activity and improved financial conditions.
External uncertainty has intensified, with geopolitical tensions and US trade protectionism contributing to divergent market reactions and a global dollar weakening, supporting Chile’s terms of trade.
Domestic inflation remains elevated, and expectations are not yet fully anchored, prompting the Board to maintain a data-dependent stance focused on securing inflation convergence to its 3% target over two years.

January 28, 2025

The Central Bank of Chile held its policy rate at 5% in response to rising inflation risks, reinforcing a cautious stance despite economic activity exceeding expectations in late 2024.
Global uncertainty, higher US long-term interest rates, and a stronger dollar have weighed on financial conditions, while China's economic acceleration has provided a modest offset to external risks.
Inflationary pressures, driven by peso depreciation, rising labour costs, and energy prices, have led to a divergence in inflation expectations, suggesting that future rate cuts will be more measured and data-dependent.

December 17, 2024

The Central Bank of Chile reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5%, meeting market expectations and maintaining a gradual approach to monetary easing amid weak domestic demand and rising external uncertainties.
Global factors, including US economic resilience, higher long-term interest rates, and China's continued weakness, have strengthened the US dollar and pressured copper and oil prices, influencing Chile's trade and inflation dynamics.
Domestic challenges, such as weak private consumption, limited job creation, and peso depreciation, could shape the pace of future rate cuts, with the central bank remaining data-dependent and focused on achieving its 3% inflation target over the medium term.

October 18, 2024

The Central Bank of Chile reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, in line with market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to inflation management amid global volatility.
External factors, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures, have contributed to higher long-term interest rates and a stronger US dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Chilean peso.
Future rate cuts are likely, but their pace will depend on domestic inflation trends, global economic developments, and the central bank’s assessment of financial stability risks.