Archive

January 27, 2026
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Chile Holds Steady, Cuts Deferred

  • Chile's central bank held the policy rate at 4.5% as the consensus expected, signalling a pause in the easing cycle rather than a shift to tightening.
  • With inflation falling toward the 3% target and expectations anchored, the decision preserves scope for future cuts if activity data weaken further.
  • Forward guidance points to the March IPoM as the key juncture for potential renewed easing, keeping a gradual rate-cut path in play but highly data-dependent.
December 16, 2025
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Chile's Disinflation Sprint Meets Policy Limits

  • Chile cut rates by 25bp to 4.5%, in line with expectations, forecasting inflation to hit 3% in Q1 2026, supporting further easing if convergence holds.
  • Peso appreciation and slowing labour costs beat forecasts, but wages are above historical averages and the neutral rate of 3.75-4.75% signals limited space ahead to cut.
  • Future cuts hinge on labour market data and external risks (copper, global growth). Policy is data-dependent amid a narrowing gap to the neutral rate.
September 10, 2025
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Chile: Steady Rates Amid Global Uncertainty

  • Chile's policy rate was held at 4.75%, surprising no consensus forecasts amid stable activity and FX markets.
  • Core inflation is higher than June projections, signalling persistent price pressures on goods and services.
  • Future moves hinge on additional data. Persistent wage-driven inflation may delay any rate cuts.
July 29, 2025
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Chile: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.75% (Consensus 4.75%) in Jul-25

  • The Central Bank of Chile unanimously cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in July 2025, in line with market expectations, marking the first reduction of the year following six months of policy stability.
  • The decision was driven by better-than-expected inflation outcomes, with the headline CPI measure falling to 4.1% in June while unemployment rose to 8.9%, well above the estimated neutral rate range of 8.0-8.5%.
  • The evolution of external risks will influence future rate decisions, particularly US tariff measures on copper exports, alongside domestic inflation convergence and labour market dynamics as the Bank moves gradually towards its neutral rate range of 3.5-4.5%.

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