Archive

2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty

• In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
• Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
• However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

By Alastair Newton

France: Temporary Reprieves

• After all the political drama in France in the second half of last year, the Bayrou government managed to pass a 2025 budget last week with barely a murmur. However, this is very likely only a temporary reprieve politically and, even without taking account of probable US tariffs, fiscally.

By Alastair Newton

EU Politics: A Tale Of Three Cities

(With apologies to Charles Dickens)

• Faced with, at best, floundering governance in the short- to medium-term, at least in both Berlin and Paris, investors should be doubly concerned at the distinct possibility that the incoming College of European Commissioners will be significantly weaker than the outgoing one.

By Alastair Newton

France: Back To The Future?

• Contrary to all the opinion polls, the ‘cordon sanitaire’ has held once again in France, keeping Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National out of any plausible government for now at least. But the cost of this is high in both the short- and medium-term.

By Alastair Newton