Archive

Syria, The World And Markets

• The consequences of the Syrian civil war spread much more widely even than its immediate neighbourhood. The collapse of the Assad regime stands to have a similarly widespread impact, including on the Russia/Ukraine war, the prospects for reform of Germany’s debt ceiling, and oil.

By Alastair Newton

EU Politics: A Tale Of Three Cities

(With apologies to Charles Dickens)

• Faced with, at best, floundering governance in the short- to medium-term, at least in both Berlin and Paris, investors should be doubly concerned at the distinct possibility that the incoming College of European Commissioners will be significantly weaker than the outgoing one.

By Alastair Newton

Germany Unemployment Rate 5.9% (consensus 5.8%) in Nov-23

- Germany's unemployment rate in November 2023 surprisingly increased by 0.1pp to reach 5.9%, its highest level since May 2021.
- The current rate is 0.25 percentage points above the one-year average and 0.36 percentage points above the long-run average.

Germany HICP Inflation 3.0% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Oct-23

- Germany's HICP inflation rate in the final print for October 2023 was confirmed at 3.0% year-on-year, marking a notable decline from the previous month and the lowest rate since June 2021.
- The current inflation level is significantly below both the one-year average, indicating a welcome easing of excessive pressures with potential implications for monetary policy.