Archive

Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

• The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Oman CPI Inflation 0.1% m-o-m in Nov-23

- Oman's CPI inflation increased by 0.1% in November 2023, partially normalising after October's fall.
- The current inflation is only slightly above the 1-year average by 0.05 percentage points and remains 0.09 percentage points below the long-run average.

Oil: Lower For Longer?

• Although Opec+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree to modest additional trimming, growth in non-Opec+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024.

By Alastair Newton