Archive

MAS Holds Course on Tightening

• MAS holds policy steady as Q3 GDP beats 2% consensus with 2.9% growth, core inflation at 0.5% for 2025.
• The central bank is less dovish on 2026 easing as the output gap stays positive through 2025, near zero in 2026.
• Tariff risks are contained as pharma exemptions are negotiated, and AI investments support manufacturing resilience.

Trump-ism And East Asia

• Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for East Asian economies that may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

By Alastair Newton

Singapore CPI Inflation 3.1% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in May-24

- Singapore's CPI inflation rate in May 2024 rose to 3.1% y-o-y, surpassing consensus estimates and representing the highest increase since February 2024, yet remains below the one-year average.
- The PPI experienced a deflationary dip of -0.11% y-o-y in April 2024, highlighting sector-specific pricing disparities, which may affect future monetary policy considerations.

Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 2.6%) in Apr-24

- Singapore's CPI inflation rate in April 2024 remained at 2.7% year-on-year, contrary to consensus expectations of a decline to 2.6%.
- However, this inflation rate remains below the one-year average and the core rate aligned with forecasts for no change from 3.1%.