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Bahrain M2 money supply 3.46% y-o-y in Jul-23

- Bahrain's M2 money supply growth rate in July 2023 declined to 3.46% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2022, falling below both the one-year and long-run averages.
- Private sector loans in Bahrain grew at a modest rate of 1.48% year-on-year in July 2023, indicating subdued demand and potential obstacles to economic expansion.

Bahrain CPI inflation -0.1% y-o-y in Jul-23

- Bahrain's CPI inflation contracted by -0.1% year-on-year in July 2023, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2023 and down from the 0.4% rise in the previous period.
- This deflationary trend deviates significantly from both the one-year average and the long-run average, highlighting the need for policymakers to address the underlying factors driving the negative inflation rate.

Oil: On the Other Hand…

• A 15% increase in the price of Brent since early July re-energised the oil bulls. However, forces continue pulling in both directions, suggesting that a price in the US$80-90pb range at year-end is still more likely than USD100.

By Alastair Newton

Bahrain CPI inflation 0.4% y-o-y in Jun-23

- Bahrain's CPI inflation increased by 0.4% year-on-year in June 2023, showing improvement from the previous month's decline.
- The June 2023 CPI inflation falls 1.69 percentage points below the one-year average and 1.27 percentage points below the long-run average, signaling relatively subdued inflationary pressures.